Bitcoin continues to captivate investors and analysts alike as a unique financial asset with distinct cyclical behavior. One compelling forecast from researcher Sminston With suggests that Bitcoin’s price could surge to a peak range of $220,000 to $330,000 by the end of 2025. This bold prediction is grounded in a data-driven model combining long-term trends and statistical analysis, challenging conventional assumptions about market maturation and volatility decay.
A Predictive Model with Strong Statistical Backing
Sminston With’s analysis hinges on a powerful combination of the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) and a power law model with an impressive R² value of 0.96. This high correlation indicates that Bitcoin’s price movements are far from random and instead follow a predictable, non-linear trajectory—distinct from traditional exponential growth models used in equities.
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The model reveals a consistent historical pattern: during each bull cycle, Bitcoin’s price tends to peak at 2 to 3 times its 365-day SMA. As of May 27, with Bitcoin trading around $110,000, this ratio implies a potential cycle top between $220,000 and $330,000. This projection aligns with past behavior, where Bitcoin repeatedly broke above its long-term trendline during periods of heightened investor enthusiasm.
Unlike assets that stabilize over time, Bitcoin appears to maintain—or even amplify—its volatility as it matures. The second chart shared by With illustrates the deviation between actual prices and the power law fit, showing persistent cyclical swings without signs of exponential decay. This challenges the widely held belief that market volatility diminishes as adoption increases.
Instead, it reinforces the idea that volatility remains a core characteristic of Bitcoin’s price dynamics, potentially fueling significant price moves in the months ahead.
Historical Accuracy Adds Credibility to Forecasts
With’s methodology isn’t speculative—it has demonstrated predictive power before. In Q3 2024, when Bitcoin traded near $60,000, he accurately projected that the asset would surpass six figures by January 2025. His approach involves analyzing peak-based regression, examining how each market cycle's high point relates to previous ones, particularly focusing on patterns of profit-taking and investor behavior during euphoric phases.
A key concept in his research is the investment decay cycle, which describes how returns diminish as a strategy becomes widely adopted. In Bitcoin’s context, this often culminates in sharp corrections after prolonged rallies, triggered by mass selling from long-term holders locking in profits.
While the model offers compelling projections for 2025, With emphasizes caution: his analysis is based on only four completed market cycles. Given the limited sample size, investors should treat these forecasts as informed estimates rather than guarantees.
Long-Term Holders Signal Possible Market Top
Amid rising optimism, on-chain data presents a counter-narrative. According to Glassnode, long-term holders (LTHs)—those who have held BTC for 1 to 5 years—have recently moved over $4 billion worth of Bitcoin, marking the largest outflow in this cohort since February 2025.
This movement is primarily driven by the 3-to-5-year holder group, responsible for $2.16 billion in transfers—the fifth-largest such event in the current cycle. Additional outflows came from 2-to-3-year holders ($1.41 billion) and 1-to-2-year holders ($450 million).
Historically, such large-scale movements by long-term investors coincide with market peaks. These actions suggest profit realization is underway, especially as Bitcoin struggles to sustain levels above $110,000.
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Although exchange reserves continue to decline—a generally bullish sign—any sudden increase in exchange inflows could intensify selling pressure and trigger sharper price corrections.
Technical Structure Hints at Consolidation or Pullback
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin has maintained a healthy uptrend structure since bottoming at $74,500. The price action shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, with each new peak followed by a consolidation phase before the next breakout.
The current 4-hour chart reflects this pattern: the most recent swing low formed at $107,300, a level that was previously a swing high just ten days prior. This symmetry suggests ongoing accumulation before the next directional move.
However, momentum may be cooling. Analyst TXMC highlights that Bitcoin has now experienced seven consecutive green weekly candles, matching the longest streaks seen before prior corrections in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
“Since 2013, Bitcoin has never gone beyond seven or eight straight up weeks without entering a pullback or consolidation,” TXMC noted on X. “We’re at week seven.”
This historical precedent raises the possibility of an imminent pause or retracement—even if the broader bull trend remains intact.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the power law model used to predict Bitcoin’s price?
A: The power law model analyzes Bitcoin’s historical price behavior using a non-linear mathematical relationship. Combined with the 365-day SMA, it identifies recurring patterns where price peaks occur at 2–3x the average, offering a data-backed method to forecast future highs.
Q: Why are long-term holder movements important?
A: Long-term holders typically sell only during major market tops. When this group transfers large amounts of BTC—especially to exchanges—it often signals profit-taking and can precede price corrections.
Q: Is Bitcoin becoming less volatile over time?
A: Contrary to popular belief, recent data shows Bitcoin’s volatility remains strong. Instead of smoothing out, its price continues to exhibit sharp cyclical swings, suggesting volatility is intrinsic to its market dynamics.
Q: How accurate has Sminston With’s analysis been in the past?
A: In Q3 2024, With correctly predicted Bitcoin would exceed $100,000 by January 2025. His use of peak-based regression and on-chain metrics has consistently provided timely insights into market turning points.
Q: Could Bitcoin really reach $330,000?
A: While not guaranteed, the projection is based on historical scaling patterns. If investor sentiment remains strong and macro conditions stay favorable, such a peak is plausible within the current bull cycle.
Q: What might trigger a Bitcoin price correction now?
A: A combination of factors—including extended bullish momentum (7+ green weeks), increased activity from long-term holders, and potential influxes into exchanges—could spark a pullback toward $95,000–$100,000.
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Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s journey through 2025 remains one of the most closely watched narratives in finance. While optimistic projections like the $220,000–$330,000 range inspire bullish sentiment, they must be balanced with on-chain realities and technical warnings.
The interplay between predictive models, holder behavior, and technical structure paints a nuanced picture: a powerful bull run may still have room to run, but caution is warranted as signs of maturity and profit-taking emerge.
Investors should focus not only on price targets but also on behavioral indicators—such as long-term holder flows and weekly momentum trends—that often reveal more than charts alone. As always, thorough research and risk management remain essential in navigating Bitcoin’s dynamic landscape.