Ethereum (ETH) has shown modest momentum in the past week, climbing 2.80% amid a persistently bearish market structure. Despite this short-term gain, ETH remains trapped in a downward trend that began in December. With significant selling pressure from large holders and weakening on-chain fundamentals, the question on every investor’s mind is: Is it time to buy Ethereum?
Renowned market analyst Ali Martinez has weighed in with a data-driven breakdown of key price levels, on-chain trends, and technical signals that could determine whether Ethereum is nearing a bottom—or facing further downside.
Ethereum’s Bearish Trend: A Closer Look
In a detailed analysis shared on X (formerly Twitter), Martinez highlighted how Ethereum’s local peak of $4,100 in December has since corrected by 57%, marking one of the most significant drawdowns in recent memory. This prolonged decline has been fueled by consistent selling from large holders—commonly referred to as "whales."
Over the past four months:
- The number of wallets holding 10,000 ETH or more has dropped by 80.
- "Super whales" (wallets with 100,000 ETH or more) have collectively offloaded 130,000 ETH.
This sustained distribution suggests that deep-pocketed investors are exiting positions, likely to lock in profits or rebalance portfolios amid macro uncertainty.
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The selling pressure isn't limited to private holders. Spot Ethereum ETFs have also seen substantial outflows, with $760 million in net withdrawals reported last month alone. Additionally, over 100,000 ETH has been transferred to exchange wallets—often a precursor to selling—indicating growing bearish sentiment among investors wary of further losses.
Technical Indicators Point to More Downside
Martinez emphasizes that technical analysis further supports the bearish outlook. On the 3-day chart, Ethereum recently broke below an ascending triangle pattern—a historically reliable bearish signal. This breakdown suggests a potential downside target near $1,000, assuming the current trend continues.
Another critical level comes from the Ether Pricing Bands model, which identifies $1,440 as a key support zone. A drop to this level would represent a 27.4% decline from current prices.
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
- Strong Support: $1,887 (current cost basis for a large cohort of holders)
- If breached, next targets: $1,440 → $1,250 → $1,000
- Resistance Zone: $2,250 – $2,610 (a critical hurdle for bulls)
Data from on-chain analytics confirms that if ETH falls below $1,887, it could trigger a cascade of further selling as investors realize losses and exit positions. Conversely, sustained trading above this level may stabilize sentiment and attract renewed buying interest.
Can the Bulls Make a Comeback?
Despite the overwhelming bearish signals, Martinez notes that a recovery is still possible—if certain conditions are met.
The most important factor? Breaking through the $2,250–$2,610 resistance zone. This range represents the concentration of supply from previous accumulation periods. If buyers can absorb this selling pressure and push prices higher, it would invalidate the current bearish thesis and potentially reignite an upward trend.
However, until that happens, the path of least resistance remains downward.
Ethereum Price Overview: Current Stats
At the time of writing, Ethereum is trading at $1,985, up 1.10% over the past 24 hours and 2.10% over the past week. However, the broader picture remains concerning:
- Monthly performance: Down 27.32%
- Market cap: $239 billion
- Crypto market dominance: 8.7%
As the largest altcoin by market capitalization, Ethereum’s performance heavily influences the broader crypto ecosystem. Its struggles reflect wider market caution, especially as macroeconomic factors like interest rates and regulatory uncertainty continue to weigh on investor sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is Ethereum a good long-term investment?
A: Historically, Ethereum has demonstrated strong long-term growth due to its foundational role in DeFi, NFTs, and smart contracts. However, short-term volatility and macro conditions mean timing matters. Investors should assess risk tolerance and consider dollar-cost averaging.
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Q: What happens if ETH drops below $1,887?
A: Falling below $1,887 could trigger increased selling from investors who bought at higher levels. This psychological and technical support level acts as a market sentiment gauge—breaking it may lead to retests of $1,440 or lower.
Q: Can Ethereum recover if whales stop selling?
A: Yes. A slowdown in whale distribution would reduce supply pressure and could stabilize prices. Monitoring on-chain flows via tools like Glassnode can help spot early signs of accumulation.
Q: How do ETF outflows affect ETH price?
A: Persistent outflows from spot ETH ETFs indicate institutional or retail withdrawal of capital. This reduces buying pressure and can amplify downward moves during market corrections.
Q: What technical pattern should I watch for a reversal?
A: Look for a confirmed breakout above $2,250 with strong volume. A reclaim of the 200-day moving average and bullish divergence on the RSI would add credibility to a potential trend reversal.
Final Thoughts: Patience Over Panic
While Ethereum remains in a corrective phase with clear risks to the downside, it’s also approaching levels where long-term value becomes increasingly attractive. The current price action reflects fear and distribution—but not necessarily permanent weakness.
For traders and investors alike, the key is to remain data-driven. Monitor on-chain metrics, whale activity, ETF flows, and technical structure rather than reacting to short-term price swings.
Martinez’s analysis serves as a timely reminder: in crypto, timing is everything. Buying too early can be just as costly as buying too late. The ideal entry may not be now—but it could be closer than you think.
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