As the next Bitcoin halving event draws closer—projected for April 20, 2025—market analysts are warning of potential short-term volatility. Historically, Bitcoin has entered a downturn in the weeks leading up to the halving, and many believe we’re now stepping into that predictable “danger zone.”
👉 Discover how market cycles shape Bitcoin’s price before major events like the halving.
The Pre-Halving Price Pattern: A Recurring Trend
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlighted on March 17 via X (formerly Twitter) that Bitcoin typically begins to correct 14 to 28 days before each halving event. This pattern has held true in previous cycles:
- In 2016, Bitcoin dropped 40% before the halving.
- In 2020, it pulled back by 20% before resuming its bull run.
“Two days from now, Bitcoin will officially enter the danger zone,” Rekt Capital noted, referring to the period when historical data suggests increased downside risk. With less than 33 days until the 2025 halving, the market is once again watching this trend unfold.
Despite the looming correction, Bitcoin’s recent performance has defied expectations. In mid-February 2025, BTC began a strong upward move, breaking through its previous all-time high of $68,990 in early March—a first in Bitcoin’s history, as it had never surpassed its prior peak before a halving until now.
However, momentum has cooled slightly. According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin reached a high of $73,835 on March 14**, but has since pulled back to around **$67,537, representing an 8.5% decline in just over a week.
This pullback aligns with the typical pre-halving market behavior—sharp gains followed by consolidation or correction. While some traders may panic, seasoned investors and top industry leaders see this not as a red flag, but as a natural part of the cycle.
Why Major Crypto Executives Are Still Bullish
Even amid signs of short-term weakness, key figures in the crypto space remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory.
Binance CEO: $80K Target by Year-End
Richard Teng, CEO of Binance, expressed optimism during a panel in Bangkok on March 17. He stated that he expects Bitcoin to continue setting new records and could surpass $80,000 by the end of 2025.
Teng emphasized that Bitcoin is still in its early stages, with growing institutional adoption fueling demand. A major driver, he noted, is the rise of U.S.-based Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which now manage over $57 billion in assets, according to Dune Analytics.
“Supply is decreasing,” Teng said, referencing the upcoming halving that will cut Bitcoin’s block reward in half. “And demand continues to grow—from retail investors, institutions, and even nation-states.”
He cautioned, however, that the path won’t be linear. “There will be volatility,” he added. “But every dip could be an opportunity for those who understand the macro trend.”
👉 See how ETF inflows and institutional adoption are reshaping Bitcoin’s market dynamics.
Crypto.com CEO: Volatility Is Healthy
Kris Marszalek, co-founder and CEO of Crypto.com, echoed this sentiment in a March 15 interview with CNBC. He described the recent price drop as a “healthy move” that helps de-leverage the market and reduce speculative excess.
“We’re seeing patterns similar to late 2020 and early 2021,” Marszalek said, referencing the period when Bitcoin surged from under $20,000 to over $60,000 in just three months.
What’s notable now, he pointed out, is that current volatility is actually lower compared to past cycles—suggesting a maturing market with more stable investor behavior.
Marszalek believes Bitcoin’s price will “rise steadily” over time, with fewer sudden swings. He stressed that BTC should be viewed not as a short-term trade but as a long-term store of value—an asset meant to be held for decades, not days or weeks.
Understanding the Halving’s Impact
The Bitcoin halving is a programmed event that occurs roughly every four years (every 210,000 blocks). It reduces the reward miners receive for validating transactions by 50%, effectively cutting new supply into the market.
This built-in scarcity mechanism is central to Bitcoin’s value proposition. Over time, as demand grows and supply issuance slows, price appreciation becomes more likely—though not without short-term turbulence.
Historically:
- After the 2016 halving, Bitcoin rose from ~$650 to nearly $20,000 within a year.
- After the 2020 halving, BTC climbed from ~$9,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 within 18 months.
While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, the pattern suggests that the most significant gains often come after the halving, not before.
Core Keywords and Market Sentiment
Key terms shaping this cycle include:
- Bitcoin halving
- Pre-halving correction
- Bitcoin price prediction
- BTC ETF adoption
- Institutional investment in crypto
- Bitcoin supply scarcity
- Market volatility
- Long-term crypto holding
These keywords reflect both technical trends and evolving investor psychology. As more users shift from speculative trading to strategic accumulation, the narrative around Bitcoin continues to mature.
👉 Learn how supply scarcity and ETF demand could drive Bitcoin’s next major rally.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is the Bitcoin halving?
A: The Bitcoin halving is a scheduled event that reduces the block reward given to miners by 50%. It occurs approximately every four years and limits the rate at which new bitcoins are created, reinforcing its deflationary nature.
Q: Why does Bitcoin often drop before the halving?
A: Analysts believe this “danger zone” dip occurs due to profit-taking after pre-halving rallies, reduced speculative momentum, and market anticipation of short-term uncertainty—even though long-term fundamentals remain strong.
Q: Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
A: Many experts suggest that pullbacks before major events like the halving can present strategic buying opportunities—especially for long-term holders who believe in increasing scarcity and growing adoption.
Q: How do ETFs affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Spot Bitcoin ETFs allow traditional investors to gain exposure without holding crypto directly. Increased ETF inflows signal strong institutional demand, which can support higher prices over time.
Q: Could Bitcoin reach $80,000 in 2025?
A: While not guaranteed, several factors—including halving-driven supply shock, ETF inflows, and global macroeconomic conditions—make such a target plausible if bullish momentum resumes post-correction.
Q: What makes this cycle different from previous ones?
A: For the first time, Bitcoin broke its previous all-time high before the halving—a sign of stronger market confidence and earlier institutional participation driven by regulated financial products like ETFs.
As Bitcoin navigates this critical phase, investors are reminded that short-term noise often masks long-term trends. While the “danger zone” may bring dips, it also sets the stage for what many believe could be another historic surge—powered by scarcity, adoption, and shifting market dynamics.