Bitcoin (BTC) has been consolidating within a well-defined price range over the past six months, fueling anticipation among traders and analysts for a potential breakout. Chain on metrics — particularly the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis and Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio — are now pointing toward a bullish trajectory, with a near-term price target of 117,000 USD.
This article explores the key technical and on-chain indicators shaping current market sentiment, analyzes resistance levels to watch, and evaluates what could trigger the next major upward movement in Bitcoin’s price.
Understanding the STH Cost Basis and Its Role in Price Discovery
The Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis is a critical on-chain metric that reflects the average acquisition price of Bitcoin held by investors who have owned their coins for less than 155 days. This data, provided by analytics platform Glassnode, helps identify key support and resistance zones based on where recent buyers entered the market.
Currently, the upper boundary of the STH Cost Basis sits at approximately 117,113 USD, a level only briefly tested in late May 2025. When Bitcoin reached nearly 112,000 USD earlier that month, it marked a new all-time high and approached the upper edge of this accumulation zone.
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Market analysts interpret this threshold as a pivotal resistance level. If BTC sustains momentum above this point, it could signal strong conviction among short-term investors and open the door for further gains.
“STH Cost Basis acts like a psychological and financial ceiling,” explains one blockchain analyst. “When price moves beyond it, especially on high volume, it often triggers a wave of buying from both retail and institutional players who missed earlier entries.”
MVRV Ratio Indicates Room for Expansion
Another powerful indicator supporting the bullish outlook is the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This metric compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization to its realized cap — essentially measuring whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued relative to historical cost bases.
As of early July 2025, the MVRV ratio remains below its historically observed peak levels. According to Cointelegraph Markets Pro data, Bitcoin still has room to appreciate before reaching extreme overvaluation thresholds — which some models place around 123,000 USD.
This suggests that even if BTC hits 117,000 USD, it may not yet be in “overheated” territory. Instead, such a move could represent a rational repricing driven by increased demand and network fundamentals rather than speculative mania.
In prior bull cycles, sustained MVRV readings above 3.5 have signaled top formation phases. Presently, the ratio remains comfortably below that level, reinforcing the argument for continued upside potential.
Technical Structure: Bull Flag Formation and Trendline Resistance
From a classical technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin appears to be forming a bullish flag pattern on the daily chart. A bull flag typically develops after a sharp upward move, followed by a period of consolidation — exactly what has occurred since May 2025.
Analyst Jelle, known for his accurate BTC forecasts, emphasized this pattern in a recent social media post:
"#Bitcoin is pushing for a breakout from the bullish flag! 👀
Break above $110k, and the first target is $130k. 📈"
For the pattern to confirm, Bitcoin must close decisively above 110,000 USD on a daily basis. Once achieved, the projected upside target aligns with the height of the initial impulse wave added to the breakout point — potentially reaching 130,000 USD.
Meanwhile, Rekt Capital highlights another crucial factor: the multi-month downward trendline resistance near 109,000 USD. Historically, each approach to this line has resulted in rejection — but recent price action shows diminishing selling pressure.
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“The question now is not if but when,” Rekt Capital noted. “Each retest weakens the bearish structure. A daily close above 109k with strong volume would invalidate the downtrend and likely accelerate momentum toward new highs.”
He adds that a successful breakout should be followed by a retest of the former resistance as support — a classic sign of trend reversal strength.
Key Levels to Watch: 109K to 117K
Several price zones are now in focus:
- 109,000 – 110,000 USD: Immediate resistance defined by trendline confluence and psychological significance.
- 117,113 USD: Upper boundary of STH Cost Basis; breakout here could trigger FOMO-driven buying.
- 123,000 USD: Estimated upper limit based on MVRV extremes from previous cycles.
- 130,000 USD: Extended target derived from bull flag projection.
Trading volume and on-chain activity will play decisive roles in determining whether these levels act as springboards or ceilings.
Moreover, derivatives data shows increasing open interest in BTC futures contracts above 115,000 USD — suggesting growing confidence among leveraged traders that higher prices are imminent.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
What is the STH Cost Basis?
The Short-Term Holder Cost Basis represents the average price at which Bitcoin holders who acquired coins within the last 155 days purchased their assets. It serves as a dynamic support/resistance level reflecting recent market sentiment.
Why is 117,000 USD significant?
This level marks the upper limit of the current STH Cost Basis. Breaking above it would indicate that most recent buyers are in profit, potentially triggering further buying momentum and reduced selling pressure.
What does a bull flag pattern mean for Bitcoin?
A bull flag is a continuation pattern suggesting consolidation after a strong rally. A confirmed breakout above 110,000 USD could propel BTC toward 130,000 USD or higher.
Is Bitcoin overvalued at current levels?
Based on MVRV analysis, Bitcoin remains below historically extreme valuations. With MVRV still under 3.5, many analysts believe substantial upside remains before entering overbought territory.
How important is on-chain data in predicting price?
On-chain metrics like STH Cost Basis and MVRV provide objective insights into investor behavior and network health. They complement technical analysis and help filter noise in volatile markets.
What confirms a true breakout?
A sustained daily candle close above 110,000 USD — ideally accompanied by rising volume and on-chain accumulation — would validate a breakout. A retest of 109K–110K as support would further strengthen the bullish case.
Final Outlook: A Breakout Could Be Imminent
Bitcoin’s price action throughout 2025 has been characterized by disciplined range-bound trading between 78,000 USD and 110,000 USD, with increasing volatility near upper boundaries. The convergence of multiple signals — including STH Cost Basis nearing its peak, MVRV indicating undervaluation headroom, and technical patterns favoring upside resolution — paints a compelling picture for a breakout.
While short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the broader narrative continues to strengthen. Investors are watching closely: will BTC finally surge past 117,000 USD and set its sights on 130,000?
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For traders and long-term holders alike, the coming weeks may prove pivotal in defining the next chapter of Bitcoin’s journey.
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