The cryptocurrency market is no stranger to bold strategies and heated debates, especially when it comes to timing investments during bear markets. One popular mantra circulating among traders is “buy new, not old”—a belief that newly launched tokens offer far greater returns than established ones. But is this strategy truly effective? Josh, Director at the social trading exchange BingX, breaks down three critical insights that challenge conventional wisdom and offer a more balanced approach to crypto investing.
With years of market cycles behind us, data-driven analysis is more important than ever. Let’s explore the real performance of new versus established cryptocurrencies, how to fairly assess investment potential, and why market sentiment and timing matter just as much as technology.
New Tokens Often Deliver Impressive Returns
When examining the 2020–2021 bull run, one trend stands out: newly launched tokens significantly outperformed older projects. Consider these standout performers:
- AAVE: Delivered roughly 10x returns
- NEAR Protocol: Achieved around 20x growth
- Avalanche (AVAX): Surged close to 30x
- Solana (SOL): Skyrocketed over 100x
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These numbers are compelling—and they fuel the argument for focusing on new launches. Investing in new crypto projects resembles venture capital investing in startups: high risk, but with potentially massive upside. Just like startups, most new blockchain projects fail, but the few that succeed can generate life-changing returns.
During the last cycle, layer-1 blockchains (L1s) were the dominant narrative. Investors who identified promising new public chains early reaped enormous rewards. However, success wasn’t guaranteed—it required deep research, timing, and conviction.
This raises a crucial point: while new tokens can deliver explosive returns, not all new projects are worth investing in. The key lies in identifying fundamentals—strong teams, real use cases, active communities, and sustainable tokenomics.
Evaluating Old Tokens: Are They Underperforming?
Many investors dismiss older cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), and others due to their relatively modest gains compared to newer entrants. For example, an analysis of the top 10 cryptocurrencies from 2018 shows that only a few have surpassed their previous all-time highs as of 2025.
Take Litecoin (LTC), for instance. From 2018 to 2025, its price increased by just 8% over six years—a mere 1.3% annualized return. By traditional investment standards, this underperformance makes it easy to write off older projects.
But here's the flaw in that logic: comparing old tokens based on peak-to-peak prices ignores bear market entry points.
Most new tokens launch during bear markets—when investor sentiment is low and capital is scarce. Their astronomical returns are calculated from these depressed launch prices. In contrast, older tokens were often bought at or near their previous bull market highs, which skews performance comparisons.
To make a fair assessment, we should compare both new and old tokens based on their bear market valuation, not their previous peaks.
Rethinking the Value of Established Cryptocurrencies
Let’s shift perspective. What if we evaluated older cryptocurrencies not from their 2018 highs, but from their 2020 or 2022 bear market lows?
When you do that, the picture changes dramatically:
- Bitcoin rose from around $3,800 in March 2020 to nearly $70,000 in 2021—a 17x return
- Ethereum surged from ~$100 to over $4,800—an over 48x gain
- Even Litecoin climbed from ~$35 to $400—a more than 11x return
Suddenly, “old” doesn’t mean “underperforming.” In fact, many established cryptos delivered multi-bagger returns when bought at the right time.
Moreover, mature projects bring advantages that new tokens lack:
- Proven track records
- Large developer communities
- Established network effects
- Higher liquidity and exchange support
- Stronger regulatory clarity
While critics argue these projects are technologically stagnant—citing slow development in ADA or limited utility in LTC—they often overlook a powerful force: market consensus.
The Power of Consensus: Why Community Matters
One of the biggest mistakes investors make is undervaluing community sentiment. Take Dogecoin (DOGE) and Shiba Inu (SHIB)—projects often mocked for lacking technical innovation. Yet both experienced explosive rallies driven purely by mass adoption and social momentum.
Josh admits he once dismissed Dogecoin as “technically worthless” and advised friends against buying it—only to watch it surge by thousands of percent. His lesson? Market consensus is value.
Even if a project lacks cutting-edge tech, widespread belief in its potential can drive demand, increase scarcity, and push prices higher. Older tokens benefit from years of accumulated trust and recognition—something new projects must build from scratch.
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The Pitfalls of Chasing “New” – A Cautionary Tale
Not every new trend leads to success. Consider DeFi 2.0, which gained massive attention in the mid-to-late stages of the last bull run. Promising innovations like “protocol-owned liquidity” attracted billions in capital.
Yet today, most DeFi 2.0 projects have collapsed or stagnated—while earlier DeFi 1.0 protocols like Uniswap and Aave continue to thrive.
This illustrates a critical truth: new doesn’t always mean better. Hype cycles can mislead even experienced investors. Without solid fundamentals, even the most talked-about projects can fade into obscurity.
So, Should You Invest in New or Old Cryptos?
The answer isn’t binary. Both new and established cryptocurrencies have roles in a well-balanced portfolio:
| Strategy | Best For | Risks |
|---|---|---|
| Investing in new tokens | High-risk tolerance, early adopters | High failure rate, volatility |
| Holding established cryptos | Long-term wealth preservation | Slower growth, lower upside |
A smarter approach? Combine both:
- Allocate a small portion (e.g., 10–20%) to carefully vetted new projects
- Use the majority (80–90%) for proven assets bought during bear markets
Timing matters too. The best returns—whether in old or new assets—come from buying during periods of fear and uncertainty.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is it better to invest in new cryptocurrencies during a bear market?
A: Yes—many high-growth tokens launch or reach low valuations during bear markets. However, thorough research is essential due to higher failure rates.
Q: Do old cryptocurrencies still have growth potential?
A: Absolutely. When evaluated from bear market lows—not previous highs—many legacy cryptos have delivered 10x+ returns across cycles.
Q: How can I identify promising new projects?
A: Look for strong fundamentals: experienced teams, real-world use cases, transparent tokenomics, active communities, and audited smart contracts.
Q: Why did DeFi 2.0 fail while DeFi 1.0 succeeded?
A: DeFi 1.0 focused on solving real problems like decentralized trading and lending. DeFi 2.0 prioritized financial engineering over utility, leading to unsustainable models.
Q: Can community sentiment really drive crypto prices?
A: Yes—cryptocurrencies are highly speculative assets. Social consensus, media attention, and influencer endorsements can significantly impact price movements.
Q: Should I avoid old cryptos because they’re “outdated”?
A: Not necessarily. While innovation matters, network effects, security, and adoption give established projects enduring value.
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Ultimately, the debate between “new vs old” misses the bigger picture. Success in crypto investing comes not from blindly following trends—but from understanding market cycles, valuing fundamentals, and respecting the power of collective belief.
Whether you're backing the next Solana or doubling down on Bitcoin at a discount, your edge lies in patience, research, and timing—not dogma.
Remember: every “old” crypto was once a “new” one. The question isn’t whether to buy new or old—it’s whether you’re buying at the right price, with the right mindset.