Bitcoin’s price has recently climbed above $62,000 for the first time in August, reigniting market speculation about a potential breakout. While momentum remains fragile, technical patterns forming over nearly three years suggest a powerful upward move could be on the horizon. One independent analyst is forecasting a dramatic surge—potentially pushing Bitcoin into six-figure territory by the end of 2024.
A Rare Cup-and-Handle Pattern Approaching Completion
Gert van Lagen, a respected technical analyst, has drawn attention to a rare and historically reliable chart pattern developing on Bitcoin’s weekly timeframe: the cup-and-handle (CnH). This pattern, which began taking shape in October 2021, is now nearing its final phase—the "handle" breakout.
The cup-and-handle formation is widely regarded as one of the most dependable bullish continuation patterns in technical analysis. According to Tom Bulkowski, author of The Pattern Site, the success rate of this pattern exceeds 95% when confirmed with proper volume and structure.
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In Bitcoin’s case, the “cup” was formed through a deep correction following the November 2021 peak, bottoming out in November 2022 at around $15,460. The subsequent recovery to $25,290 marked Base 1, followed by a stronger rally that confirmed Base 2. A prolonged consolidation between $25,000 and $30,000 from April to September 2023 established Base 3, setting the stage for the first major parabolic leg.
That surge delivered a 198% increase, propelling Bitcoin to an all-time high of $73,737 in March 2024—validating the early stages of the predicted explosive move.
Now, the market appears to be forming Base 4, which coincides with the “handle” portion of the CnH pattern. This final consolidation phase typically precedes the most aggressive leg of the uptrend—a blow-off top rally driven by institutional inflows, retail FOMO, and short squeezes.
Van Lagen believes that once Bitcoin breaks decisively above this handle formation, it could trigger “the steepest kind of ascent BTC has ever witnessed.” His projected price target? Over $260,000 by the end of 2024, representing a 312% return from current levels.
Massive Short Squeeze Looms Above $70,500
A breakout isn’t just about technical patterns—it also hinges on market positioning. And right now, the futures market is primed for a significant shakeup.
According to data from CoinGlass, more than $7.18 billion worth of short positions** are set to be liquidated if Bitcoin crosses **$70,493. An additional $6.54 billion** in shorts would be wiped out at **$72,581, creating a powerful upward feedback loop known as a short squeeze.
These liquidation clusters act like fuel for a breakout. As price pushes through key resistance levels, automated stop-loss triggers force leveraged traders to buy back their positions, further accelerating the rally.
Despite recent price volatility, sentiment among futures traders has turned increasingly bullish. Over the past 24 hours, 57.19% of accounts were holding long positions. The taker buy/sell ratio stood at 1.01, indicating near-equal buying and selling pressure—but with a slight edge toward accumulation.
This balance suggests that while uncertainty remains, the market is not dominated by panic or extreme leverage. That sets the stage for a more sustainable move rather than a flash crash or trap.
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Entering the “Banana Zone”: When Logic Meets Frenzy
Beyond technical structures, some analysts are framing the coming phase in more colorful terms. Real Vision’s Jame Coutts recently described the next stage of Bitcoin’s bull run as entering the “banana zone”—a playful synonym for “batshit season,” where rational price models break down and emotion takes over.
The banana zone isn’t defined by charts alone. It’s characterized by:
- Exponential price growth
- Soaring trading volumes
- Viral mainstream attention
- Widespread retail participation
- Media frenzy and celebrity endorsements
Historically, these phases occur after an asset breaks through its previous all-time high with strong momentum. For Bitcoin, surpassing $73,737—the March 2024 peak—could be the psychological trigger that ignites this phase.
Smithson With, a Bitcoin cycle researcher known for accurately predicting past cycle tops, supports this view. His model suggests a minimum target of $164,173 by January 1, 2025, with even higher peaks possible depending on macroeconomic conditions and adoption trends.
These projections align with broader expectations: once resistance is cleared and fear turns to greed, Bitcoin may enter a self-reinforcing rally that defies traditional valuation metrics.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a cup-and-handle pattern in trading?
A: The cup-and-handle is a bullish continuation pattern shaped like a teacup on price charts. It forms after an uptrend, followed by a rounded correction (the cup), then a smaller consolidation (the handle). A breakout above the handle signals a resumption of the prior trend—with high reliability.
Q: Why is the $70,500 level important for Bitcoin?
A: This level marks the threshold for triggering massive short liquidations—over $7 billion in futures positions. Crossing it could spark a cascading buy-side squeeze, accelerating upward momentum.
Q: What causes a parabolic rally in Bitcoin?
A: Parabolic rallies occur when increasing demand outpaces supply due to limited float, amplified by leverage, media attention, and fear of missing out (FOMO). They often follow major technical breakouts or macro catalysts like ETF approvals.
Q: Is the 312% ROI prediction realistic?
A: While ambitious, such returns aren’t unprecedented in Bitcoin’s history. Previous bull runs have seen gains exceeding 500%. Whether this target is met depends on liquidity flow, market structure, and external macro factors.
Q: What does “banana zone” mean in crypto markets?
A: It’s slang for a phase of irrational exuberance where price rises exponentially due to hype and speculation. Think of it as the peak emotional stage of a bull market—driven more by sentiment than fundamentals.
Q: How reliable are long-term BTC price predictions?
A: No prediction is guaranteed. However, models based on historical cycles, on-chain metrics, and technical patterns provide probabilistic insights—not certainties. Always combine them with risk management strategies.
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Final Thoughts: Pattern Meets Psychology
Bitcoin stands at a pivotal juncture. A rare confluence of technical structure—the nearly three-year cup-and-handle pattern—aligns with shifting market psychology and looming derivative exposures.
While nothing is certain in financial markets, the setup suggests that if Bitcoin clears key resistance levels above $70,500, it could unleash a wave of momentum unlike anything seen before. Whether it reaches $164,000 or $260,000 by year-end depends on how quickly sentiment shifts from cautious optimism to full-blown euphoria.
One thing is clear: we may be closer than ever to witnessing Bitcoin enter its next legendary phase—the banana zone.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.