Bitcoin (BTC) is entering a critical phase in its price trajectory, edging ever closer to the long-anticipated $100,000 milestone. As the leading cryptocurrency trades near $99,250 — having briefly touched $99,600 — market dynamics are shifting dramatically. Supply at these elevated price levels is tightening, with only a slim volume of coins available for purchase on major exchanges. This scarcity is creating a potential inflection point where demand could rapidly outpace supply, triggering a sharp breakout.
At current levels, just 1,000 BTC are listed for sale on Coinbase Prime, one of the most influential institutional trading platforms. Similar-sized ask orders hover slightly above this price, forming a fragile sell wall that appears increasingly vulnerable. With strong buying pressure building, this thin buffer may be quickly absorbed — especially given recent trends in institutional accumulation and stablecoin liquidity expansion.
Bitcoin Faces Emerging Scarcity Shock
The limited availability of BTC near $100K reflects a broader structural shift in market supply. Across major centralized exchanges, total sell-side liquidity between $99,000 and $100,000 stands at approximately 1,700 BTC. This represents an extremely narrow depth for an asset of Bitcoin’s size and global trading volume.
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This tightening supply coincides with record-low exchange reserves. On-chain data shows Bitcoin holdings on exchanges have dwindled to around 2.3 million BTC, the lowest level in years. While this metric doesn’t confirm long-term hodling behavior, it does suggest that fewer holders are actively preparing to sell — a bullish signal during periods of rising prices.
Daily on-chain activity remains robust, with over 810,000 transactions confirmed in the past 24 hours — matching volumes seen during March’s price peak. Notably, an old whale wallet resurfaced, moving a 50 BTC block reward after years of dormancy. While it's unclear whether this was a sell-off or wallet consolidation, such movements often precede heightened market volatility.
Despite some profit-taking by miners and large holders, net outflows from exchanges continue to offset selling pressure. Miners have reduced their reserves from 2.19 million BTC in September to 2.03 million today, indicating strategic sales at profitable levels. However, the fact that prices have held firm amid this distribution underscores strong underlying demand.
Dollar-Dominated Trading Gains Momentum
Another key development is the growing dominance of USD-based BTC trading pairs. Recently, dollar-denominated trades accounted for 27.33% of total volume, reinforcing the U.S. dollar’s role as the primary pricing mechanism in the crypto market. This shift reduces reliance on premium-driven markets like South Korea, where BTC had previously traded at significant premiums.
In contrast, BTC is now trading at a discount against the Korean won, dipping as low as $97,000 on local exchanges. This reversal suggests that global arbitrage mechanisms are functioning efficiently and that U.S.-centric markets are leading the price discovery process.
Market Absorbs Selling Pressure with Ease
One of the most telling signs of Bitcoin’s maturing market structure is its ability to absorb large sell-offs without collapsing. Earlier in the cycle, bearish whale movements or government disposals could trigger sharp corrections. Today, even substantial selling events are being swiftly neutralized.
For example, recent profit-taking by miners and the partial liquidation of holdings by whales have been comfortably absorbed by persistent institutional and retail demand. The market previously demonstrated its resilience when it digested a 50,000 BTC sell-off by the German government over several days — a feat that would have caused panic in earlier cycles.
Short-term slippage remains a concern near psychological resistance levels like $100K. The final push into six figures has been marked by frequent dips below $99,000, reflecting temporary exhaustion among buyers. Yet each pullback has been met with renewed buying interest.
The recent expiry of **$2.7 billion in options contracts** passed without incident — even bear whales failed to drive prices down to their targeted "maximum pain" level of $85,000. This indicates weakening downward pressure and growing confidence among bulls.
Looking ahead, traders should watch for the upcoming $9 billion options expiry scheduled for late November. Historically, large expiry events introduce volatility as market makers adjust hedges and whales attempt to influence settlement prices.
Accumulation Continues Despite High Prices
Contrary to expectations that $100K would trigger mass profit-taking, Bitcoin remains in what many analysts classify as an accumulation phase, according to models like the Rainbow Chart. Rather than viewing this price as a peak, institutional players appear to see it as a stepping stone toward higher valuations.
Companies like MicroStrategy and MARA Digital continue to add BTC to their balance sheets at scale. MARA alone has acquired over 5,000 additional bitcoins recently, signaling long-term confidence in Bitcoin’s store-of-value narrative.
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Sentiment remains extremely bullish. The Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index sits at 94, a level not seen since the early days of the 2020 recovery. While extreme greed can sometimes precede corrections, it also reflects strong momentum and widespread optimism about future price action.
Open interest across major derivatives platforms remains near its all-time high of $32 billion, with a relatively balanced ratio between long and short positions. This equilibrium suggests that while speculation is intense, there isn’t overwhelming leverage that could lead to cascading liquidations.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Why is only 1,000 BTC available for sale on Coinbase near $100K?
At key psychological price levels like $100K, liquidity often thins because many holders are reluctant to sell at what they perceive as still-undervalued prices. Additionally, large holders (whales) may place smaller orders to avoid revealing their full intent or triggering slippage.
Does low exchange supply mean Bitcoin will definitely break $100K?
While low supply on exchanges increases upward pressure, it doesn’t guarantee a breakout. External factors like macroeconomic conditions, regulatory news, or global risk sentiment can still influence price direction.
Are miners selling because they’re running out of cash?
Not necessarily. Miners are likely taking profits after months of rising prices. Their breakeven cost for mining new BTC is far below current levels, allowing them to sell while remaining profitable.
Could the $9B options expiry cause a crash?
It could increase volatility, but not necessarily lead to a crash. Options expiries often result in short-term price manipulation attempts by whales, but sustained trends depend on broader market fundamentals.
Is Bitcoin still a good buy near $100K?
Many institutional investors believe so. Continued corporate accumulation and declining circulating supply suggest long-term upside potential despite short-term volatility.
What happens after Bitcoin hits $100K?
Historically, psychological barriers like $10K, $20K, and $50K were followed by consolidation and further rallies. A similar pattern could unfold post-$100K, potentially targeting $120K–$150K in subsequent phases.
Bitcoin stands at the edge of a historic moment. With minimal supply available near $100K and strong demand from institutions and retail alike, the path forward appears tilted upward. While short-term fluctuations are inevitable, the structural indicators — from declining exchange reserves to rising stablecoin liquidity — point to a market preparing for the next leg of its journey.
👉 Stay ahead of the breakout — monitor real-time liquidity shifts before the next major move.