Bitcoin (BTC) reached $73,681 on October 29—just shy of its all-time high (ATH) of $73,949—but failed to break through. Despite the near-record price, a concerning trend is emerging: investor engagement appears to be waning. With active addresses down 25% from their March 2024 peak and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. presidential election, market analysts are questioning whether this lull signals a potential downturn.
This article explores key on-chain data and market sentiment indicators that suggest Bitcoin may face a correction. We’ll examine two primary warning signs, analyze critical price support levels, and assess what could drive the next major move in BTC’s price trajectory.
Bitcoin Active Addresses Signal Declining Investor Participation
One of the most telling metrics in cryptocurrency analysis is Bitcoin active addresses—a measure of how many unique addresses are sending or receiving BTC on any given day. As of late October, daily active addresses hover around 734,000, significantly lower than the 986,000 recorded during Bitcoin’s March 2024 all-time high.
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This 25% drop suggests that the current price action isn’t being fueled by broad market participation. Instead, the rally may be driven by limited trading activity, potentially from large holders or short-term speculators rather than sustained retail or institutional inflow.
A healthy bull market typically sees rising prices accompanied by increasing network usage. The divergence between price and active addresses indicates a weakening foundation—one where momentum could easily reverse if selling pressure increases.
The lack of widespread adoption at these price levels raises concerns about market depth and resilience. If new capital isn’t entering the ecosystem, the upside potential may be capped, leaving BTC vulnerable to pullbacks.
Market Sentiment Weighed Down by U.S. Election Uncertainty
Another factor dampening optimism is the approaching U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2025. Political uncertainty often triggers risk-off behavior across financial markets, and cryptocurrencies are no exception.
According to prediction market data from Polymarket, there’s only an 8% chance that Bitcoin will reach $80,000 before the election results are finalized. This low probability reflects investor caution and a lack of bullish conviction in the near term.
Markets thrive on clarity, and elections introduce variables that make forecasting difficult—regulatory outlooks, fiscal policies, and geopolitical stances can all shift depending on the outcome. Many investors are choosing to wait on the sidelines until the political landscape stabilizes.
This hesitation is evident not just in on-chain data but also in derivatives markets. Open interest in BTC futures has remained flat, and options markets show a bias toward hedging rather than aggressive directional bets.
As a result, any negative news or unexpected developments post-election could trigger rapid sell-offs, especially if confidence remains fragile.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Support Levels to Watch
Technical analysis provides further insight into Bitcoin’s immediate trajectory. Over the past seven months, BTC has formed a consolidation range between $59,364 and $68,958, which now serves as a critical value zone.
As of October 31, Bitcoin experienced a nearly 4% decline, bringing it closer to the lower boundary of this range. The $68,958 level is particularly important—it represents the upper end of the consolidation and acts as both resistance and support depending on market direction.
- Bullish Scenario: If Bitcoin holds above $68,958 and stabilizes post-election, it could retest and potentially surpass its all-time high in November.
- Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below $68,958 could trigger further downside pressure, with initial target support at **$63,099**—a high-volume trading node from recent months.
- Worst-Case Scenario: Should selling intensify, BTC could fall toward the bottom of the value area at $59,364, representing an 8% to 13% drop from current levels.
Traders and investors should monitor volume patterns and order book depth around these levels. A strong rejection at $68,958 with rising volume would confirm bearish momentum, while a decisive bounce could reignite bullish sentiment.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Why might Bitcoin crash again?
Bitcoin faces risks from declining on-chain activity and external macroeconomic uncertainty—particularly the U.S. presidential election. With active addresses 25% below their peak and limited speculative enthusiasm, the market lacks strong upward momentum.
What does low active address mean for BTC?
Fewer active addresses indicate reduced user engagement and transaction volume. This suggests that price gains aren't supported by broad adoption or new capital inflows, making the rally more susceptible to reversals.
What is the key support level for Bitcoin?
The most critical support is at **$68,958**. A sustained break below this level could lead to an 8–13% correction, with next targets at $63,099 and potentially $59,364.
Could Bitcoin still reach a new all-time high?
Yes—but only if it holds above $68,958 after the election and sees renewed buying interest. Sustained network activity and positive macro developments would be necessary to fuel another leg up.
How do elections affect cryptocurrency markets?
Elections create regulatory and policy uncertainty. Investors often reduce exposure to volatile assets like crypto until outcomes are clear, leading to lower liquidity and increased downside risk.
Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
It depends on risk tolerance. Conservative investors may prefer to wait for confirmation of strength above $68,958 or post-election clarity. Aggressive traders might look for bounce setups near support with tight risk management.
What Comes Next for Bitcoin?
The coming weeks will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s price direction. The confluence of technical structure, on-chain behavior, and macro events creates a high-stakes environment.
If network activity picks up and prices stabilize above key supports, we could see a resurgence of bullish momentum—possibly pushing BTC toward $80,000 later in Q4 2025. However, failure to defend $68,958 may open the door to deeper corrections.
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Long-term fundamentals for Bitcoin remain strong: limited supply, growing institutional interest via ETFs, and increasing global adoption. But in the short term, caution is warranted.
Investors should focus on:
- Monitoring daily active addresses for signs of recovery
- Watching price action around $68,958 ahead of the election
- Evaluating sentiment shifts in derivatives and options markets
Final Thoughts
While Bitcoin remains near its all-time high, warning signs are flashing beneath the surface. Declining active addresses and election-related uncertainty have created a fragile environment where sentiment can shift rapidly.
For traders, this means prioritizing risk management and avoiding overexposure. For long-term holders, dips could present strategic entry points—but only after confirming broader market strength returns.
Ultimately, Bitcoin’s next major move will likely depend on both technical follow-through and external catalysts. Until then, vigilance—and preparedness—is key.