The year 2025 has ushered in a period of intense volatility in the cryptocurrency markets, with Bitcoin trading in a wide range between $50,000 and $70,000 for several consecutive months. This prolonged phase of fluctuation lacks clear directional momentum—neither confirming a traditional bull run nor settling into a bear market. Instead, it reflects a complex transitional phase shaped by evolving investor behavior, institutional dynamics, and macroeconomic forces.
Understanding this environment requires moving beyond price charts. On-chain data has emerged as a critical analytical tool, offering deep insights into market sentiment, investor positioning, and long-term trends. By examining key metrics such as MVRV Z-Score, RHODL Ratio, and Long-Term Holder (LTH) vs. Short-Term Holder (STH) realized市值 distribution, we can uncover the underlying structure of the current cycle and assess whether a true bull market is on the horizon.
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MVRV Z-Score: Market Value Still Below Historical Peaks
One of the most revealing indicators for assessing Bitcoin’s valuation is the MVRV Z-Score, which compares the network’s market value to its realized value.
- Market Value = Current price × circulating supply
- Realized Value = Sum of all bitcoins valued at their last on-chain transaction price, filtering out speculative noise
The MVRV Z-Score applies standard deviation analysis to identify extreme deviations between these two values. When the score rises into the pink zone (typically above +3.7), it signals overvaluation—a common precursor to market tops. Conversely, green zones (below -1.7) indicate undervaluation, often seen at bear market lows.
Historically, major turning points align with Z-Score extremes:
- 2017 bull peak: Z-Score exceeded +4
- 2018 and 2022 bear bottoms: Score dipped below -2
- 2021 cycle top: Reached ~+3.5, slightly lower than prior peaks
Despite Bitcoin surpassing its previous all-time high in 2025, the current MVRV Z-Score remains below +2—less than half the level observed during past euphoric phases. This suggests that while prices have risen, widespread retail speculation and froth have not yet taken hold.
In other words, the market hasn’t entered the “mania” stage. The absence of extreme overvaluation implies there may still be room for upward movement before reaching a true cycle top.
RHODL Ratio: Cooling Speculative Appetite
Another powerful metric for identifying market cycles is the RHODL Ratio, which measures the relationship between short-term capital gains and long-term holdings.
It works by comparing the UTXO age bands:
- High readings occur when recently acquired coins (e.g., held 1 week) generate significantly higher returns than older ones (1–2 years)
- A spike into the red zone typically signals overheated conditions and profit-taking opportunities
Currently, the RHODL Ratio shows no sign of entering hyper-speculative territory. After a brief surge following Bitcoin’s breakout above $60,000, the ratio has trended downward over recent months. This decline indicates that early momentum-driven gains are fading.
However, this doesn’t mean activity has stalled. Short-term trader engagement remains elevated due to persistent price swings—creating opportunities for active traders even amid cooling enthusiasm.
This mixed signal—declining speculative heat but sustained trading volume—points to a maturing market where both caution and opportunity coexist.
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LTH/STH Realized Market Cap: Is the "Main Wave" Here?
A pivotal question for 2025 is whether Bitcoin has entered the main uptrend phase ("main wave") of its bull cycle. One of the clearest indicators for this shift is the crossover between Long-Term Holders’ (LTH) and Short-Term Holders’ (STH) realized market cap.
Here’s how it works:
- During bear markets, LTHs accumulate and dominate wealth—blue line peaks
- Near bull tops, STHs control most circulating supply—red line peaks
- When the red line crosses above blue, it often marks the beginning of parabolic acceleration
So far in 2025, no definitive crossover has occurred. While short-term volatility has increased and some new capital has entered, long-term holders continue to maintain strong conviction. Their reduced selling pressure supports price stability and hints at structural strength.
This dynamic suggests that despite price appreciation, we may not yet be in the full-blown bull phase. Instead, the market appears to be consolidating—a necessary phase before potential explosive growth.
Moreover, the introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs has fundamentally altered capital flows. Institutional investors are now rebalancing portfolios—shifting assets from higher-fee products like GBTC to more efficient ETF alternatives. This transition adds complexity but also brings deeper liquidity and broader adoption.
A New Kind of Bull Market?
Unlike previous cycles driven primarily by retail speculation or halving hype, the 2025 environment reflects a more nuanced reality:
- Increased institutional participation via ETFs
- Greater regulatory clarity in major markets
- Stronger infrastructure and custodial solutions
- More sophisticated on-chain analytics tools
These factors contribute to a less predictable, but potentially more durable, upward trajectory. We may no longer be seeing textbook boom-and-bust patterns—but rather extended periods of accumulation followed by gradual price discovery.
This isn’t a cycle that can be easily mapped using old frameworks ("cannot刻舟求剑"). The rules are evolving.
Core Keywords Identified:
- Bitcoin market analysis
- On-chain data
- MVRV Z-Score
- RHODL Ratio
- Bitcoin spot ETF
- Long-term holder (LTH)
- Market cycle indicators
- Bitcoin price prediction
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does a low MVRV Z-Score mean for Bitcoin investors?
A: A low score (below +2) indicates Bitcoin is not overvalued by historical standards. This could suggest room for further upside before reaching a bubble phase, making it an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
Q: How reliable is the RHODL Ratio in predicting market tops?
A: The RHODL Ratio has historically been effective at identifying overheated markets. When short-term profits vastly exceed long-term gains, it often precedes major corrections or extended consolidation phases.
Q: What triggers the "main wave" in a Bitcoin bull cycle?
A: The main wave typically begins when short-term holders gain dominance over long-term holders in realized market cap—shown by the red line crossing above the blue line. This shift reflects broad-based buying pressure and accelerating adoption.
Q: Are Bitcoin spot ETFs changing market dynamics?
A: Yes. ETFs bring institutional capital, improve liquidity, and reduce reliance on speculative trading. They also influence on-chain behavior by altering how large investors manage exposure.
Q: Can on-chain data predict future price movements?
A: While not foolproof, on-chain metrics provide valuable context about supply distribution, investor sentiment, and accumulation patterns—helping investors anticipate potential turning points.
Q: Is Bitcoin still in a bull market if prices are range-bound?
A: Yes. A sideways price action after a breakout can represent healthy consolidation. True bull markets often include extended accumulation phases before parabolic moves.
The current Bitcoin market defies simple categorization. It’s neither clearly bullish nor bearish—but rather in a state of transformation. With on-chain fundamentals showing strength and institutional adoption growing steadily, the foundation for a sustainable rally appears intact.
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