We’re halfway through 2025, and the crypto market continues to deliver one of the most dynamic performances in financial history. From regulatory milestones to technological breakthroughs, this year has reinforced crypto’s growing role in the global economy.
Let’s cut to the core question on every investor’s mind:
Where are we in the crypto cycle?
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are up 52% and 48%, respectively, so far this year. Since the market bottomed in late 2022, bitcoin has surged over 300%, while Ethereum has gained nearly 200%. That kind of momentum raises a natural concern—have we peaked?
The answer, based on historical patterns and on-chain data, is clear: we’re only about halfway through this bull run.
The Bitcoin Halving: A Predictable Engine of Growth
One of the most reliable indicators of crypto market cycles is the bitcoin halving—a preprogrammed event that reduces the reward for mining new blocks by 50%, effectively cutting the supply of new bitcoins in half.
The fourth halving occurred on April 19, 2024. While the immediate price reaction was muted, history shows the real gains come after the event.
Looking back:
- After the first halving in 2012, bitcoin rose by 8,000% within 12 months.
- The second halving in 2016 was followed by a nearly 30x increase.
- After the 2020 halving, bitcoin delivered a 6x return over the next 18 months.
Each cycle follows a similar arc: prices bottom 12–18 months before the halving, rally into the event, and then explode higher in the 12–18 months after.
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Today’s cycle is no different. The bottom formed about 17 months before the 2024 halving. Bitcoin has already climbed over 300% from those lows, but post-halving rallies typically peak a year or more later.
This suggests we’re in the fourth or fifth inning of a nine-inning game. The most explosive gains often come in the final stretch.
On-Chain Data Confirms: Bull Market Still Heating Up
Beyond price charts, on-chain analytics provide real-time insights into investor behavior, supply distribution, and network health.
Blockchain transactions are transparent and immutable—meaning we can track exactly how investors are acting. And right now, the data tells a consistent story.
Key metrics show:
- Long-term holders are still accumulating, not selling.
- Exchange reserves continue to decline, indicating fewer coins available for immediate sale.
- Network activity and transaction volumes are rising steadily, reflecting growing real-world usage.
According to Glassnode, a leading blockchain intelligence firm, these signals align closely with the mid-phase of previous bull markets. Despite the strong gains already realized, the majority of profits historically occur in the final 20% of the cycle.
In other words, roughly 80% of total returns happen after investors start doubting whether the rally can continue.
Crypto’s Growth Outpaces Every Tech Revolution
Zooming out, it’s essential to remember why crypto is different.
This isn’t just about price—it’s about adoption. Blockchain technology is growing at an unprecedented rate.
Between 1990 and 2000, internet adoption grew by about 70% per year. During its golden era, that was revolutionary.
Today, blockchain adoption is expanding at 137% annually—nearly double the pace of the early internet.
Bitcoin alone has returned over 13,000% since 2014, even after multiple crashes of 50–80%. No traditional asset class—stocks, bonds, real estate, or commodities—comes close over the same period.
And this is just the beginning. Decentralized finance (DeFi), non-fungible tokens (NFTs), tokenized assets, and smart contracts are laying the foundation for a new financial system.
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Two Common Crypto Investing Mistakes (And How to Avoid Them)
Even in a strong market, investors often make critical errors.
Mistake #1: Not owning any crypto
Given its track record and future potential, every portfolio should include a small allocation to crypto. It’s one of the few assets with asymmetric upside—small exposure can lead to life-changing gains over time.
Mistake #2: Owning too much
Crypto remains the most volatile asset class on Earth. A 50% drawdown isn’t an outlier—it’s a recurring feature.
Here’s a simple test:
Imagine your crypto holdings lose half their value next month. If that thought makes you anxious or nauseous, you’re overexposed.
Your allocation should be small enough that you can sleep soundly through volatility. That’s how you stay invested long enough to capture the full cycle.
What Comes Next? Price Targets and Strategic Plays
Based on historical patterns and current momentum:
- Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in this cycle—a roughly 120% increase from current levels.
- Ethereum, with its expanding ecosystem and upcoming protocol upgrades, may outperform bitcoin.
But beyond the major coins, some of the best opportunities lie in undervalued crypto businesses generating real revenue—projects building infrastructure, decentralized applications, and enterprise solutions.
These are not speculative tokens without fundamentals. They’re companies leveraging blockchain to solve real problems and monetize innovation.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Are we too late to enter the crypto market?
A: No. While significant gains have already occurred, historical patterns show the largest returns often come after the halving. We’re likely only halfway through the cycle.
Q: How long do crypto bull markets typically last?
A: On average, bull runs last 18–24 months, with the steepest gains occurring in the final 6–12 months. This suggests strong momentum could continue into late 2025 or early 2026.
Q: Should I invest in Bitcoin ETFs or Ethereum ETFs?
A: Newly approved spot ETFs offer regulated exposure without holding private keys. They’re ideal for conservative investors or those within retirement accounts.
Q: What causes crypto prices to rise after a halving?
A: The halving reduces new supply. If demand remains steady or increases, basic economics drives prices higher. Post-halving scarcity often triggers institutional and retail FOMO.
Q: How do I manage risk in a volatile market?
A: Keep your allocation small, diversify across assets, and avoid leverage. Focus on long-term holding rather than timing short-term moves.
Q: Is now a good time to take profits?
A: Taking partial profits is wise if it helps you stay calm. But selling everything assumes you’ll re-enter at a lower price—which few investors actually do. Staying invested beats timing the top.
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Final Thoughts: Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined
The crypto bull market is far from over. Halving cycles, on-chain trends, and adoption rates all point to another 12–18 months of strong momentum.
Yes, volatility will continue. Corrections of 30–50% are inevitable. But those who stay focused on the long-term trajectory—not daily price swings—will be best positioned to benefit.
Crypto isn’t just an investment. It’s a technological revolution unfolding in real time. And right now, we’re in the middle innings of a transformation that could redefine finance for decades.
Stay persistent. Stay informed. And remember: the best is yet to come.