Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment, as on-chain data reveals the cryptocurrency is retesting a critical support level — the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs) who acquired their BTC between one and three months ago. This level, currently sitting at $67,100, represents the last remaining hurdle before Bitcoin potentially breaks into uncharted bullish territory with renewed momentum.
This isn't just another price fluctuation. It's a strategic inflection point backed by on-chain analytics, a powerful lens through which investor behavior and market sentiment can be measured in real time.
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Understanding the Short-Term Holder Realized Price
The Realized Price is an essential on-chain metric that reflects the average acquisition cost of all existing Bitcoin holders. However, when segmented by holding duration, it becomes even more insightful — especially when focusing on short-term holders.
Short-term holders are defined as investors who have acquired their Bitcoin within the past six months. This group is particularly sensitive to price movements due to lower holding conviction compared to long-term investors. Their behavior often shifts between fear and greed depending on whether the current price is above or below their average cost basis.
Within this STH cohort, analysts further break down behavior into subgroups:
- 0–1 month holders: Newly entered investors, highly reactive.
- 1–3 month holders: Moderately committed, beginning to form stronger conviction.
- 3–6 month holders: Nearing the threshold of becoming long-term holders.
The 1–3 month holder group is now in focus. Their Realized Price sits at $67,100**, and Bitcoin’s current trading price — hovering around **$67,200 — suggests the market is balancing right at this psychological and financial equilibrium point.
When the spot price trades above this level, it means most investors in this group are in profit, increasing the likelihood of holding or even buying more. Conversely, if the price slips below, panic selling could trigger, especially among emotionally driven traders.
Why This Level Matters: A Final Resistance Test
According to on-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin has already broken above the Realized Prices of the other two STH subgroups — those holding for less than one month and those holding for three to six months. That leaves only this final STH cost basis as the last short-term resistance.
Historically, when Bitcoin successfully surpasses these cost basis levels, it often triggers a wave of bullish momentum. Why? Because investors who were previously underwater begin to recover losses, boosting confidence. Those already in profit may hold tighter, reducing circulating supply and increasing scarcity pressure.
This dynamic creates a self-reinforcing cycle:
- Price rises above cost basis → more investors in profit → reduced selling pressure → higher demand → further price appreciation.
Successfully clearing $67,100 could signal that **short-term sentiment has turned decisively bullish**, paving the way for a potential rally toward $70,000 or beyond.
Market Context: A Week of Strong Momentum
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $67,200, marking a nearly 6% gain over the past seven days. The upward trajectory has been sharp and sustained, suggesting strong buying interest from both retail and institutional players.
Technical charts show Bitcoin consolidating near key resistance levels, with volume supporting the climb. This isn’t speculative noise — it’s backed by measurable on-chain activity:
- Increased exchange outflows, indicating accumulation.
- Declining supply on exchanges, tightening available sell-side liquidity.
- Rising wallet addresses holding BTC for 1–3 months, reinforcing the importance of this cohort’s cost basis.
These signals align with a maturing bull phase, where confidence builds gradually before accelerating into broader market awareness.
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Behavioral Economics Behind the Breakout
What makes the 1–3 month holder group so influential? Timing.
These investors bought during a volatile period — possibly after the initial post-halving surge or during mid-correction dips. Many entered with hesitation, testing the waters rather than committing fully. Now, with price returning to their entry zones, they face a decision:
- Hold and ride higher?
- Sell to secure profits?
- Add more if confidence returns?
Their collective choice will shape near-term price action. On-chain trends suggest accumulation is winning out. Net outflows from exchanges continue, and large transactions (>$100K) are rising — signs that whales and experienced traders are positioning for further upside.
Moreover, derivatives markets show healthy funding rates — elevated but not extreme — indicating optimism without dangerous over-leverage.
FAQ: Your Questions Answered
Q: What is the Realized Price in Bitcoin analysis?
A: The Realized Price represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders, calculated by summing the value of each UTXO (unspent transaction output) at its last movement price. It helps identify whether the network is in aggregate profit or loss.
Q: Why are short-term holders important for price movements?
A: STHs are more emotionally driven and reactive to price changes. When their cost basis is breached, they’re more likely to sell (if underwater) or hold/buy (if profitable), directly influencing market supply and demand.
Q: What happens if Bitcoin fails to hold above $67,100?
A: A rejection could trigger short-term profit-taking or panic selling from newly profitable investors. However, given prior breaks above other STH levels, any dip may be seen as a buying opportunity by long-term believers.
Q: How reliable are on-chain metrics like Realized Price?
A: Highly reliable when used in context. Unlike sentiment or social media noise, on-chain data reflects actual wallet activity — real money moving. It’s a cornerstone of objective crypto analysis.
Q: Is this a sign of a new bull run?
A: While no single metric confirms a bull market definitively, clearing final cost basis levels like this one is a strong bullish signal — especially when combined with rising volume, low exchange supply, and positive macro conditions.
Q: How can I track these metrics myself?
A: Platforms like Glassnode and CryptoQuant offer dashboards for Realized Price, exchange flows, and holder distribution. Pairing this data with price action gives a powerful edge in forecasting trends.
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Conclusion: A Psychological Threshold Within Reach
Bitcoin’s retest of the $67,100 short-term holder cost basis isn’t just a number — it’s a marketwide stress test of confidence. Clearing this level would confirm that even the most recent buyers are now profitable and likely to hold, reducing immediate sell pressure.
With momentum building and on-chain fundamentals strengthening, the path forward appears increasingly bullish. Whether you're an investor, trader, or observer, this moment offers valuable insight into how data-driven sentiment shapes crypto markets.
As history shows, the most powerful moves often begin just after doubt fades — and right now, doubt may be running out.
Core Keywords: Bitcoin price, short-term holder cost basis, Realized Price, on-chain data, BTC market sentiment, Bitcoin resistance level, STH Realized Price