Bitcoin is once again approaching a critical psychological milestone—$110,000—amid growing macroeconomic signals that could reshape the financial landscape in 2025. With U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent suggesting the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as early as September, market sentiment is shifting in favor of risk assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies. This article breaks down the latest developments in macro policy, institutional movements, on-chain activity, and technical indicators driving today’s market momentum.
👉 Discover how macro trends are fueling the next crypto surge
Market Overview: Key Developments (July 3, 2025)
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent hints at potential Fed rate cuts in September or earlier due to softening inflation.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF now generates more management fee revenue than the S&P 500 index.
- SEC halts Grayscale’s application to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund into an ETF.
- Bitcoin price hovers near $109,300, testing key resistance levels ahead of U.S. jobs data.
These events underscore a pivotal moment where traditional finance and digital assets are increasingly intertwined. As macro pressures build, investors are turning to crypto not just for speculation—but as a strategic hedge.
Macro & Policy Outlook
Today’s Key Economic Indicators
The release of June’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report (previous: 139K), Labor Force Participation Rate (62.4%), and Unemployment Rate (4.2%) will be closely watched. Weak data could accelerate expectations for a Fed rate cut, which historically benefits high-growth, risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Global Macro Developments
1. Fed Rate Cut Speculation Gains Momentum
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that President Trump’s tariff policies have had a milder inflationary impact than expected. Combined with recent downward revisions in economic growth forecasts by Fed officials, this opens the door for rate cuts—possibly before September. With inflation cooling after the 50bps cut in September 2024, markets are pricing in increased dovishness.
A lower interest rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like Bitcoin, making it more attractive to both retail and institutional investors.
2. SIFMA Opposes Tokenized Stock Exemptions
The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) has formally opposed exemption requests from Coinbase, Kraken, and others seeking to issue tokenized stocks. Calling the proposals “deeply concerning,” SIFMA urged the SEC to conduct a transparent public review rather than fast-tracking approvals.
This reflects ongoing tension between traditional finance and crypto innovation—but also highlights growing recognition of blockchain-based securities.
3. SEC Pauses Grayscale’s ETF Conversion
The SEC has temporarily suspended Grayscale’s plan to convert its Digital Large Cap Fund into an ETF. The fund holds approximately 80% Bitcoin, 11% Ethereum, and exposure to Solana, Cardano, and XRP.
Although initially approved by the Division of Trading and Markets, the full agency is now conducting a comprehensive review. This delay underscores regulatory caution but doesn’t eliminate the long-term possibility of broader crypto ETF approvals.
Traditional Asset Correlation
- Nasdaq: +0.94%
- S&P 500: +0.47%
- Dow Jones: -0.024%
- Spot Gold: $3,347.90/oz (-0.29%)
- WTI Crude Oil: $66.97/barrel (-0.75%)
Equity markets show mixed performance, with tech leading gains—often a bullish signal for crypto sentiment. Meanwhile, declining gold and oil prices suggest reduced inflation fears, aligning with the case for rate cuts.
Crypto Market Snapshot
Spot Performance of Major Cryptocurrencies
(As of July 3, 14:00 HKT)
Bitcoin continues to lead with strong upward momentum, currently trading around **$109,300**, up 0.6% on the day. Ethereum remains range-bound but shows signs of consolidation before a potential breakout above $3,000.
Futures Capital Flow Analysis
According to Coinglass, BTC, ETH, DOGE, SUI, WIF, UNI, PEPE, and LTC saw significant net inflows in futures markets over the past 24 hours. This suggests growing trader confidence and positioning for upside moves.
Bitcoin Liquidation Map
At current prices (~$109,278):
- A drop below $107,000** could trigger **$1.8 billion in long liquidations.
- A break above $111,000** may unleash **$1.717 billion in short squeezes.
Traders are advised to manage leverage carefully—volatility may spike around key macro events.
Bitcoin Long/Short Ratio
The global BTC long/short ratio stands at 0.8208, indicating slightly more short positions (54.92%) than longs (45.08%). This bearish bias could amplify upward moves if shorts are forced to cover during a breakout.
On-Chain Monitoring
On-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa reports a notable whale who has shorted Bitcoin four times since March 2025, netting over $13.17 million** in profits. Currently, this whale holds a **$58.87 million short position at an entry price of $108,869 (liquidation at $118,630), now facing an $830K floating loss.
Such large positions highlight how institutional-grade trading is influencing market dynamics.
Blockchain Headlines
- Ripple applies for U.S. banking license to expand crypto services.
- New York court approves Celsius’s $4.3B lawsuit against Tether.
- BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF surpasses S&P 500 in management fee revenue.
- Robinhood issues 213 tokenized U.S. stocks on Arbitrum for just $5.
- Vitalik Buterin warns: if decentralization becomes a slogan, ETH faces existential risk.
- Circle mints 250 million USDC on Solana.
- OpenAI denies endorsing Robinhood’s tokenized shares.
- First U.S.-listed ETF offering native SOL staking rewards—SSK—launches.
- Bitcoin volatility hits lowest level since 2023—only seen seven times in history.
- Jupiter Studio launches new token launch platform.
- MELANIA team unlocks 25 million tokens (~$5.23M).
- One user turns $45 into $300,000 in 3 minutes—possibly due to whale error.
- PayPal co-founders launch new bank for crypto and AI startups.
👉 See how institutional adoption is reshaping crypto investing
Institutional Insights: Expert Takes
- QCP Capital: Improving derivatives liquidity and favorable macro backdrop support risk assets.
- Matrixport: Declining Bitcoin volatility and decoupling from U.S. equities enhance institutional appeal.
- LD Capital: Consolidation may end soon—if ETH breaks $3,000, a true bull market may follow.
- 10x Research: BTC is testing its consolidation range upper bound. Strong ETF inflows, falling exchange balances, and rising Fed pressure suggest momentum is building for a July breakout.
Technical Analysis: Bitcoin on the Brink
As of July 3, Bitcoin maintains a strong bullish structure:
- Price: ~$109,300 (+0.6% daily)
- 4-hour chart: Above 5-day and 20-day moving averages
- Trading along upper Bollinger Band
- MACD shows bullish crossover with expanding histogram
Key levels to watch:
- Support: $108,000 and middle Bollinger Band
- Resistance: $110,000 (psychological barrier)
A close above $110K could trigger a wave of algorithmic and institutional buying. Conversely, failure to hold $108K may lead to short-term pullbacks.
The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report will be crucial. A weak print could confirm rate cut expectations and propel BTC higher.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why is the Fed considering rate cuts in 2025?
A: Lower-than-expected inflation following the September 2024 rate cut, combined with revised economic growth forecasts, has increased pressure on the Fed to ease monetary policy—potentially as early as September 2025.
Q: How does a rate cut affect Bitcoin?
A: Lower interest rates reduce the yield advantage of traditional assets like bonds, making non-yielding but high-growth assets like Bitcoin more attractive to investors seeking returns.
Q: What does the SEC’s pause on Grayscale’s ETF mean?
A: It delays—but doesn’t kill—the possibility of a spot crypto ETF beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum. The review suggests regulators want more clarity on multi-asset funds before approval.
Q: Is Bitcoin’s low volatility a concern?
A: Not necessarily. Historically, extended low-volatility periods often precede major price moves. With ETF inflows strong and exchange reserves falling, a breakout may be imminent.
Q: Can Ethereum break $3,000 soon?
A: Analysts believe so—if Bitcoin leads higher and on-chain activity increases. A break above $3K could signal the start of a broader altcoin rally.
Q: Should I trade during major economic releases?
A: High-impact events like Nonfarm Payrolls can cause sharp volatility. Traders should use tight risk management or wait for confirmation before entering new positions.
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Final Thoughts
The stars may be aligning for another leg up in the crypto market. With macro tailwinds building, institutional adoption accelerating, and technical indicators flashing green, Bitcoin’s approach to $110K is more than just hype—it’s backed by fundamentals.
While regulatory hurdles remain, the trend is clear: digital assets are becoming an integral part of the global financial system. Whether you're a long-term holder or active trader, staying informed and agile is key.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider risk management before trading.