Ripple (XRP) is navigating turbulent waters amid rising geopolitical tensions and shifting macroeconomic dynamics. After a brief rebound from weekend lows, XRP’s upward momentum stalled, triggering fresh intraday losses. As of Thursday, the asset trades around $2.14, with immediate support eyed at $2.09. Meanwhile, the XRP/BTC trading pair has plunged nearly 42% since its January peak, now hovering near 0.00003415 BTC — its lowest level in seven months.
This sustained downtrend reflects growing market skepticism, amplified by broader uncertainty surrounding U.S. Federal Reserve policy independence and global risk sentiment. However, a potentially bullish technical formation — a falling wedge pattern on the daily chart — suggests a reversal could be on the horizon.
XRP/BTC Slides Amid Macroeconomic Uncertainty
The XRP/BTC pair has entered deeply bearish territory, recently testing levels as low as 0.00001982 BTC. This decline coincides with heightened concerns over the Federal Reserve’s autonomy, reignited by former President Donald Trump’s public criticism of Chair Jerome Powell during a recent NATO summit.
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Such political pressure has contributed to volatility in traditional markets, reflected in a slight dip in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) on Thursday. In response, investors have increasingly turned to established digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) as hedges against uncertainty — a trend that may have indirectly sidelined altcoins like XRP.
Technically, the XRP/BTC chart paints a clear picture of weakening momentum:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 37, nearing oversold conditions.
- A death cross formed on June 12 when the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossed below the 200-day EMA — a historically reliable bearish signal.
- Key support is now being tested near 0.00001900 BTC, a level that could prompt a bounce if held.
Despite these bearish indicators, there's growing optimism around a developing falling wedge pattern on the daily timeframe. This consolidation structure forms when price action narrows between two downward-sloping, converging trendlines — typically signaling exhaustion among sellers and potential upside reversal.
Why the Falling Wedge Matters
Falling wedges are known for their bullish implications, especially after prolonged downtrends. Key characteristics include:
- Declining trading volume during consolidation
- Gradual contraction of price range
- Seller fatigue giving way to buyer accumulation
A breakout above the upper trendline — ideally accompanied by a surge in volume — would confirm the pattern and suggest strong buying interest. Traders anticipate a potential 29% rally post-breakout, calculated by measuring the widest part of the wedge and projecting it upward from the breakout point.
This could push XRP/BTC toward 0.00002560 BTC, marking a significant recovery and possibly reigniting broader momentum for XRP against fiat pairs like USDT.
Historically, similar breakouts have preceded sharp rallies in XRP, including those seen in late 2024 when cross-border payment optimism drove prices toward $0.34.
Technical Outlook: Is an XRP Rebound Imminent?
On the 4-hour chart for XRP/USDT, recent price action reveals increasing downside pressure. After failing to sustain gains above $2.22 — a weekly high — the token reversed sharply, reinforcing bearish control.
A confirmed sell signal emerged from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator:
- The blue MACD line crossed below the red signal line
- The histogram continues to contract below zero
- Momentum remains firmly in sellers’ hands
Additionally, the RSI remains below the 50 midpoint, signaling persistent selling pressure. While not yet in oversold territory, continued weakness could drive it below 30 — a level that often precedes short-term rebounds even within larger downtrends.
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Key support levels to watch include:
- **$2.09** – Immediate floor; a break below opens path to psychological $2.00
- $1.90 – Previously tested on Sunday; critical short-term support
- $1.80 and $1.60 – Major structural supports from April’s downtrend
A decisive drop below $2.00 could accelerate selling, particularly if broader crypto markets fail to stabilize. However, any sustained bounce from current levels may attract contrarian buyers anticipating a macro turnaround or regulatory clarity.
Market Drivers to Watch
Several macro factors are influencing investor behavior across digital assets:
- U.S. Labor Market Data: The upcoming June Non-Farm Payroll report — released early due to Independence Day — is expected to show weaker job growth (estimated at 115K vs. May’s 139K) and a slight uptick in unemployment to 4.3%. If confirmed, this could boost expectations of a Fed rate cut in Q3 2025, generally positive for risk assets including cryptocurrencies.
- Geopolitical De-escalation: Reduced tensions in the Middle East have eased safe-haven demand slightly, allowing capital to rotate back into speculative assets.
- Trade Outlook Improvements: Renewed optimism around global trade negotiations may improve liquidity flows into emerging tech sectors, including blockchain infrastructure.
While Bitcoin remains under $106,000 and Ethereum struggles to reclaim key levels, altcoins like XRP remain particularly vulnerable to sentiment shifts. Still, Ripple’s core use case in cross-border payments continues to attract long-term interest, especially in regions with high remittance volumes.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What is a falling wedge pattern?
A: A falling wedge is a bullish reversal chart pattern characterized by lower highs and lower lows contained within two converging downward-sloping trendlines. It often signals that selling pressure is diminishing and a breakout to the upside may follow.
Q: How reliable is the death cross for XRP/BTC?
A: The death cross (50 EMA below 200 EMA) is a strong bearish indicator, especially on daily charts. While not foolproof, it has historically preceded extended downtrends — making it a key warning sign for traders.
Q: Can XRP recover if BTC remains weak?
A: While Bitcoin dominance affects most altcoins, XRP can still outperform during periods of strong fundamental news — such as regulatory clarity or new partnerships in global payments.
Q: What volume confirmation is needed for a valid breakout?
A: A true breakout should be accompanied by a noticeable increase in trading volume — ideally 1.5x to 2x the average — to confirm genuine buying interest and reduce the risk of a false move.
Q: Where can I track XRP/BTC in real time?
A: Many advanced trading platforms offer deep liquidity and technical analysis tools for major crypto pairs like XRP/BTC.
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Q: Is now a good time to buy XRP?
A: Timing entries during consolidation phases like a falling wedge can offer favorable risk-reward setups — but always consider portfolio diversification and risk tolerance before investing.
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While short-term headwinds persist, the confluence of technical setup and improving macro conditions suggests that Ripple may be positioning for a meaningful rebound. Traders should monitor volume-backed breakouts and key economic data closely in the coming days.