The cryptocurrency market may be in a downturn, but Sui (SUI) is showing resilience. Over the past 24 hours, SUI has surged more than 4%, outperforming the broader market and reigniting investor interest in the Layer-1 blockchain. This momentum comes just before a significant token unlock event—raising questions about sustainability, market sentiment, and whether long-term price predictions like Raoul Pal’s ambitious $22 target remain credible.
Upcoming Token Unlock: Impact on SUI Price
Next week, Sui is set to release $119 million worth of tokens into circulation—an event that accounts for 56% of all scheduled cryptocurrency unlocks during that period. While the dollar value appears substantial, the actual supply impact is relatively muted. The unlock represents only 1.16% of SUI’s current circulating supply, a figure that may limit the downward pressure typically associated with large token releases.
Historically, token unlocks can trigger selling pressure as early investors, team members, or ecosystem funds gain access to previously locked tokens. However, when the unlocked amount is small relative to total supply, markets often absorb the influx without major volatility.
Other projects undergoing unlocks include Optimism ($16 million), Kamino Finance ($12 million), and Artificial Superintelligence Alliance ($2 million), but none match Sui’s scale this week.
Technical Outlook: Resistance, Support, and Potential Breakout
SUI is currently testing key technical resistance at $2.88, which aligns with its 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The price is also confined within a descending channel pattern—a bearish formation suggesting continued downward pressure unless broken.
A successful breakout above $2.88 could open the path toward **$3.55, especially if broader market conditions improve. Conversely, failure to overcome resistance may lead to a retest of the $2.29 support level**, where buying interest could stabilize the downtrend.
Despite short-term bearish patterns, momentum indicators suggest weakening downside pressure:
- The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below neutral (50) but is trending upward.
- The Stochastic Oscillator shows bullish crossover potential, indicating possible reversal in the near term.
Additionally, SUI is approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle on its weekly chart—a neutral pattern that often precedes strong directional moves. Traders will be watching closely to see whether the breakout is upward or downward, with volume likely acting as the deciding factor.
Raoul Pal’s Bullish Vision: Can SUI Hit $22?
Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision and a respected macro analyst in crypto circles, remains bullish on Sui’s long-term prospects. He believes SUI could emerge as a top-five performing asset in 2025, particularly if Bitcoin establishes new all-time highs.
Pal anticipates SUI will consolidate below $3.50 before launching its next major rally. His reasoning hinges on historical patterns where altcoins begin outperforming post-Bitcoin halving and after BTC secures new highs.
According to data from CoinGecko, if Sui were to reach Solana’s current market capitalization of $77 billion**, the SUI token would need to trade at approximately **$22.90—an 8x increase from current levels. While theoretically possible, this scenario depends on several factors:
- Accelerated adoption of Sui’s smart contract platform
- Growth in decentralized applications (dApps) and developer activity
- Recovery and expansion of DeFi volume on Sui-based DEXs
👉 Explore how Layer-1 blockchains are evolving and which ones are positioned for explosive growth.
SUI vs. Solana: A Tale of Two Layer-1s
Despite Pal’s optimism, Sui has underperformed its primary competitor, Solana (SOL), by 26% since May 2025. The SUI/SOL trading ratio, which measures relative strength, has declined sharply and is now testing critical support at 0.0158.
In late April, SUI briefly outpaced Solana by 56%, fueled by strong DeFi growth and ecosystem incentives. However, that momentum has reversed.
DeFi Volume Trends Tell the Story
Sui’s decentralized exchange (DEX) volume played a crucial role in its Q2 price recovery:
- March: $7 billion
- April: $11 billion
- May: Peaked at $14.12 billion**, coinciding with SUI’s all-time high of **$4.20
June brought a sharp cooldown—DEX volume **dropped by 50% to $7 billion**, mirroring SUI’s price decline from over $4 to around $2.20. This correlation underscores the importance of on-chain activity in driving token demand, especially for blockchains where tokens are used for gas fees and staking.
While Solana maintained robust DeFi and NFT activity during the same period, Sui’s ecosystem saw reduced user engagement and fewer high-profile project launches.
If the 0.0158 support holds, traders may see a potential 50% rebound in SUI’s relative performance against SOL. A break below, however, could signal further underperformance.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: When is the next SUI token unlock?
A: The next major unlock is scheduled for Monday, releasing $119 million worth of SUI tokens—equivalent to 1.16% of the current circulating supply.
Q: Is SUI a good investment in 2025?
A: Analysts like Raoul Pal believe SUI could be a top performer if Bitcoin reaches new highs and Sui’s ecosystem expands. However, recent underperformance vs. Solana suggests caution until DeFi activity recovers.
Q: What is the price prediction for SUI if it matches Solana’s market cap?
A: If Sui reaches Solana’s $77 billion market cap, SUI could trade near **$22.90**, representing roughly an 8x increase from current levels.
Q: Why did SUI price drop in June?
A: The decline coincided with a 50% drop in DEX volume—from $14 billion in May to $7 billion in June—indicating reduced on-chain activity and investor interest.
Q: What is the technical outlook for SUI?
A: SUI faces resistance at $2.88 and support at $2.29. A breakout above $2.88 could push it toward $3.55; failure may lead to further downside.
Q: How does SUI compare to Solana in performance?
A: Since May 2025, Sui has underperformed Solana by 26%. The SUI/SOL ratio is now testing critical support at 0.0158.
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Final Thoughts
Sui remains a promising Layer-1 contender with strong fundamentals, innovative technology (like its object-centric blockchain model), and growing institutional interest. However, short-term price action reflects the challenges of sustaining momentum without consistent on-chain utility.
The upcoming token unlock is unlikely to cause major disruption due to its small supply impact. Instead, the real test lies in whether the ecosystem can reignite developer activity and DeFi volume—key drivers behind past rallies.
For investors eyeing Pal’s $22 target, patience may be required. That level isn’t just ambitious—it’s contingent on exponential growth in adoption, market cap expansion, and outperforming established rivals like Solana.
As always, technicals provide clues, but fundamentals determine long-term success. Watch DEX volume, developer activity, and BTC’s trajectory—they’ll likely dictate SUI’s next major move.