The promise of quick wealth in crypto often centers around one thing: new token listings. Hyped as the next big "wealth generator," freshly launched altcoins on major exchanges attract eager investors hoping to catch the next moonshot. But recent performance data from the world’s top five exchanges reveals a sobering truth — most new tokens are underperforming, and retail investors are frequently left holding the bag.
Between September 16 and October 18, we analyzed the price performance of newly listed tokens on Binance, OKX, Upbit, Bybit, and Coinbase. The results? A market where early insiders profit while latecomers face losses. This isn't just bad luck — it's a structural issue rooted in high valuations, low liquidity, and asymmetric information.
In this deep dive, we’ll unpack the real returns from these new listings, compare them to Bitcoin and Ethereum’s steady gains, and explore why liquidity — or the lack thereof — is reshaping the altcoin investment landscape in 2025.
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New Token Performance Across Major Exchanges
Let’s break down how each platform’s new listings have fared, using key metrics like average return, median return, and volatility.
Bybit: Low Volatility, Negative Returns
- New tokens listed: 20
- Average return: -9.02%
- Median return: -15.65%
- Standard deviation: 0.41
Bybit’s new listings show consistently poor performance, with most tokens delivering negative returns. While volatility is relatively low, the overall trend points to a market where retail investors are slowly bleeding capital. The tight clustering of losses suggests limited breakout potential — and little room for recovery.
Coinbase: Stable but Underwhelming
- New tokens listed: 11
- Average return: +0.49%
- Median return: -0.77%
- Standard deviation: 0.35
Coinbase, known for its strict compliance standards, offers a safer environment — but not necessarily higher returns. The near-zero average return indicates that even regulated listings aren’t immune to market fatigue. While investors avoid catastrophic drops, they’re also missing out on meaningful gains.
OKX: High Risk, High Disappointment
- New tokens listed: 9
- Average return: -9.40%
- Median return: -17.39%
- Standard deviation: 0.54
OKX’s new tokens are among the most volatile and underperforming. Despite frequent launches and aggressive marketing, the data shows a troubling pattern: most investors lose money. The high standard deviation suggests sporadic rallies, but these are often short-lived and driven by speculation rather than fundamentals.
👉 Learn how to identify breakout tokens with strong fundamentals
Upbit: Quiet Outperformance
- New tokens listed: 4
- Average return: +11.85%
- Median return: -3.86%
- Standard deviation: 0.39
With a small sample size, Upbit still stands out. Its average return is positive, and drawdowns are relatively controlled. This may reflect a stricter project vetting process or a more mature domestic market in South Korea. While not all tokens succeed, the overall ecosystem appears more resilient.
Binance: The Wildcard Winner
- New tokens listed: 11
- Average return: +22.02%
- Median return: -17.91%
- Standard deviation: 1.50
Binance leads in average returns — but don’t be misled. The median return is deeply negative, meaning only a few tokens drove massive gains. Projects like NEIRO saw explosive rallies, pulling the average up. For investors who picked the right coin, returns were extraordinary. For most others? Significant losses.
This divergence highlights a critical truth: new token success is increasingly winner-take-all.
Overall Market Trends: The Illusion of Positive Returns
When aggregating all new listings across exchanges:
- Average return: +0.55%
- Median return: -14.71%
- Maximum gain: +471.43% (a single outlier)
- Maximum loss: -58%
- Variance: 0.75
At first glance, a positive average return seems encouraging. But the median being deeply negative tells a different story: over half of all new tokens are losing value. A handful of extreme performers — often meme coins — are masking widespread underperformance.
This is the hallmark of a speculative market: a few explosive winners create the illusion of opportunity, while the majority of participants suffer quiet losses.
Why Altcoin Liquidity Is Drying Up
Liquidity — the ability to buy or sell an asset without drastically affecting its price — is the lifeblood of any market. In 2025, many new altcoins suffer from critical liquidity shortages, leading to:
- Sharp price swings
- Difficulty exiting positions
- Vulnerability to manipulation
The Liquidity Lifecycle of a New Token
- Launch Phase: Exchange provides initial liquidity; price surges due to hype.
- Early Exit: Founders, VCs, and insiders begin selling.
- Volume Drop: Retail interest fades; trading activity declines.
- Price Collapse: With few buyers, even small sell orders crash prices.
Many projects launch with less than 20% of supply circulating. The rest is locked — but scheduled to unlock over time. This creates a constant overhang of future selling pressure.
Low FDV vs. High FDV Projects
- Low FDV (<$200M at launch): Often meme coins with strong community backing. Examples include NEIRO and various dog-themed tokens. These benefit from low float and high speculation, enabling rapid price spikes.
- High FDV (>$2B at launch): Typically backed by venture capital and professional teams. But with minimal circulating supply, they face immediate sell-offs from early investors. The result? Steady downtrends post-listing.
👉 See how real-time liquidity data can protect your investments
Bitcoin & Ethereum: The Safe Havens in Turbulent Times
Compare this chaos to Bitcoin and Ethereum:
- Bitcoin’s price rose ~15% from its lowest to highest point in the past month.
- Any investor buying BTC during this period likely saw an average gain of ~8%.
- Ethereum followed a similar trend, supported by Layer 2 adoption and DeFi growth.
Why the difference?
- Deep liquidity: Billions in daily volume prevent manipulation.
- Institutional demand: Bitcoin ETFs have seen four consecutive days of net inflows.
- Market maturity: Decades of network security and adoption build trust.
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin’s open interest hit a record $397.85 billion, signaling strong bullish sentiment. With spot demand rising and macro uncertainty looming (e.g., U.S. elections), BTC is increasingly seen as “digital gold.”
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Are new exchange listings still worth investing in?
A: Only with extreme caution. Most new tokens underperform, and liquidity risks are high. Focus on projects with transparent tokenomics and realistic valuations.
Q: Why do some new tokens pump immediately after listing?
A: Initial pumps are often driven by pre-coordinated buying, influencer marketing, or exchange promotions. These rallies rarely reflect sustainable demand.
Q: What’s the danger of low circulating supply?
A: When only a small portion of tokens are tradable, early investors can easily manipulate prices. Once unlocks begin, massive sell-offs often follow.
Q: Should I avoid all altcoins and stick to Bitcoin?
A: Diversification has value, but prioritize quality over quantity. Blue-chip altcoins with real use cases (e.g., ETH, SOL) are safer than speculative new listings.
Q: How can I spot a potential “winner” among new tokens?
A: Look for strong community engagement, low initial FDV (<$500M), fair launch mechanics, and real-world utility — not just hype.
Q: Is now a good time to enter the altcoin market?
A: With liquidity tight and sentiment cautious, timing matters. Wait for clearer macro signals and stronger on-chain fundamentals before committing capital.
Final Thoughts: Wisdom Over Hype
The data is clear — in 2025, the era of easy gains from new token listings is over. While Binance and Upbit show glimmers of opportunity, the broader trend points to a market where retail investors are systematically disadvantaged.
Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to dominate as safe havens, backed by liquidity, adoption, and institutional trust. Meanwhile, many altcoins struggle with structural flaws: inflated valuations, poor distribution, and vanishing liquidity.
For long-term success, investors must shift from chasing hype to conducting due diligence. Scrutinize tokenomics, assess circulation schedules, and prioritize projects with real utility over viral marketing.
In crypto, fortune favors the thoughtful — not the impulsive.
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