The cryptocurrency market witnessed a notable downturn on July 26, with Ethereum (ETH) breaking below key support levels on the Huobi exchange. As Ethereum led the downward move, Ethereum Classic (ETC) followed in tandem—though with significantly weaker volume, raising questions about its momentum and market sentiment.
This article analyzes the short-term technical behavior of both assets, explores their historical correlation, and provides insights into what traders should watch for in the coming hours and days.
Ethereum Drops Below 1450 RMB After Failed Consolidation
As of 12:00 PM Beijing time on July 26, Ethereum was trading at 1,366.89 RMB, down 3.91% from the day’s opening price of 1,422.54 RMB. The highest point during the session reached 1,444.9 RMB, but the price failed to sustain gains and eventually plunged to a new recent low of 1,340.1 RMB before staging a partial recovery.
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Technical analysis of the hourly chart reveals that after nearly a week of sideways consolidation, ETH broke downward around 5:00 PM the previous day. The drop came with increased volume, confirming bearish conviction as it pierced the critical 1,450 RMB support zone—a level that had previously acted as both support and resistance.
Following the breakdown, price rebounded sharply from the 1,340 RMB low, retracing almost exactly back to the 1,450 RMB level—the former support now turned resistance. However, the rally stalled at this psychological threshold, signaling continued selling pressure.
Despite visible volatility, daily chart indicators suggest Ethereum remains in a corrective phase. While intraday swings show active participation from both bulls and bears, there is no clear directional breakout yet on higher timeframes. The sustained trading volume during both pullbacks and rallies indicates strong market engagement, but the lack of a decisive close above 1,450 RMB keeps the short-term bias neutral-to-bearish.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for Ethereum
- Immediate Resistance: 1,450 RMB (previous support)
- Next Upside Target: 1,500–1,520 RMB range if resistance breaks
- Downside Risk: 1,300 RMB if selling resumes
- Critical Support Zone: 1,250–1,280 RMB (long-term technical floor)
Market participants are now watching whether the 1,340 RMB low holds as a swing bottom or gives way to further downside pressure.
Ethereum Classic Mirrors Move But Lacks Conviction
At the same time, Ethereum Classic traded at 98.64 RMB, down 3.37% from its opening price of 102.12 RMB. Its intraday high was 102.99 RMB, while the low touched 97.8 RMB, showing a similar downward trajectory to Ethereum.
Historically, ETC has shown a strong correlation with ETH movements due to shared fundamentals and investor base. This latest move is no exception—ETC followed ETH lower after breaking below its near-term support at 104 RMB.
However, a closer look at the hourly candlestick pattern reveals a concerning divergence in momentum:
- Downward moves were accompanied by rising volume, suggesting strong selling interest.
- Rebound attempts showed little buying volume, indicating weak demand and lack of aggressive accumulation.
This "sell on volume, buy on silence" pattern often precedes extended downtrends or prolonged consolidation periods. Unlike Ethereum, which saw meaningful counter-trend rallies backed by real trading activity, Ethereum Classic's bounce lacked follow-through.
Furthermore, daily volume remains extremely low compared to broader altcoin peers. This illiquidity increases volatility risk and reduces the reliability of technical signals. There are currently no signs that ETC is developing an independent bullish narrative—it remains firmly in lockstep with ETH but with weaker structural health.
Why Volume Matters in Market Moves
Low-volume rebounds can mislead traders into thinking a bottom has formed when in fact sellers still control the trend. In contrast, high-volume breakouts or reversals carry greater validity because they reflect broad consensus among market participants.
For ETC, the absence of volume-backed recovery suggests caution for traders looking to catch a falling knife.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Why did Ethereum drop below 1,450 RMB?
A: After a prolonged consolidation phase, increased selling pressure emerged around 5:00 PM the previous day. The breakdown occurred on elevated volume, confirming bearish momentum. Key technical support failed to hold, triggering stop-loss orders and further downside.
Q: Is Ethereum Classic likely to outperform Ethereum soon?
A: Currently, there are no fundamental or technical indicators suggesting ETC will decouple from ETH in a bullish way. With low trading volume and weak rebound strength, ETC appears more vulnerable than leading cryptocurrencies like ETH.
Q: What does "rebound to former support" mean?
A: When a price level that once supported an asset (preventing it from falling) is broken, it often becomes resistance. In this case, 1,450 RMB supported ETH earlier but now acts as resistance during rebounds—a common phenomenon in technical analysis.
Q: How reliable is Huobi data for global crypto trends?
A: While Huobi is a major exchange, regional pricing can differ slightly due to liquidity variations. For global context, traders should cross-reference data across multiple platforms and consider USD-denominated prices.
Q: Should I buy the dip in Ethereum or wait longer?
A: That depends on your risk tolerance and strategy. Short-term traders may wait for a confirmed reversal above 1,450 RMB with strong volume. Long-term investors might view this correction as part of normal market cycles and consider gradual entry points.
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Final Thoughts and Monitoring Checklist
As of now, both Ethereum and Ethereum Classic are navigating uncertain territory:
- Ethereum broke key support but showed resilience with a strong intraday rebound.
- Ethereum Classic followed lower but failed to generate meaningful buying interest.
- Volume dynamics favor caution—especially for ETC.
- The broader crypto market remains sensitive to macro factors including BTC movement and regulatory sentiment.
Traders should monitor the following over the next 24–48 hours:
✅ Whether ETH can reclaim and close above 1,450 RMB with strong volume
✅ If ETC shows any sign of volume-backed stabilization near 97–98 RMB
✅ Broader altcoin performance relative to BTC and ETH
✅ Global trading volumes across major exchanges
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While short-term fluctuations are inevitable, understanding the interplay between price action and volume helps separate emotional reactions from strategic opportunities. In markets like these, patience and precision matter more than speed.
Disclaimer: The data cited in this article reflects conditions at the time of writing and may have changed. This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any asset.