Ripple’s Volatile Journey in the Crypto Market
Ripple (XRP) has been one of the most talked-about cryptocurrencies in recent months, not just for its price swings but for the evolving regulatory landscape shaping its future. In January, XRP surged to a multi-year high of $3.39, driven by strong market sentiment and speculation around regulatory clarity. However, that momentum didn’t last. By mid-February, the price had pulled back to $2.68 — a 21% decline — and remains about 31% below its all-time high of $3.89 set back in January 2018.
Despite this correction, XRP has outperformed many major digital assets. Over the past 90 days, it has delivered an impressive 145% return, outpacing both Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), which have seen losses during the same period. This resilience highlights growing investor confidence in XRP’s long-term potential.
Several macro forces are contributing to this bullish environment. The shift toward a more crypto-friendly U.S. administration has boosted market sentiment across the board. Additionally, the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler and the interim leadership of Mark Uyeda — seen as more open to digital assets — have further fueled optimism. These changes suggest a potential softening in the SEC’s historically strict stance on crypto regulation.
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Is an XRP ETF on the Horizon?
One of the most significant developments for XRP came on February 13, when the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) formally acknowledged a filing for a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) from the New York Stock Exchange and Grayscale Investments. This marks a critical step forward in the approval process.
The proposal outlines converting Grayscale’s existing $16.1 million XRP Trust into a fully tradable ETF, with Coinbase Custody as custodian and BNY Mellon handling administrative duties. While this doesn’t guarantee approval, it signals that the SEC is actively reviewing the application — a process that could take up to 240 days, with key deadlines starting in mid-March and a final decision expected by October 2025.
Grayscale isn’t alone. The Chicago Board Options Exchange has also filed a 19b-4 application for Bitwise’s XRP ETF. Unlike Grayscale’s conversion model, Bitwise is launching a new fund from scratch. This dual-track effort underscores growing institutional interest in bringing XRP to mainstream investors.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, noted that while past filings have stalled or been withdrawn, the renewed activity suggests the SEC is at least open to dialogue. Still, challenges remain. Unlike Bitcoin and gold, which had established futures markets before their ETF approvals, XRP lacks such infrastructure — a factor that could slow approval.
However, the most striking aspect is the irony highlighted by industry experts: the SEC is simultaneously litigating against Ripple over whether XRP is a security and reviewing an ETF that would hold the same asset. Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, called this an “enormous message,” suggesting the SEC may be reevaluating its position.
Bloomberg analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas estimate a 65% chance of an XRP ETF being approved by the end of 2025, placing it among the top altcoins with viable ETF prospects.
The Make-or-Break Resistance Zone
XRP is now approaching a critical resistance zone between $3.15 and $3.50 — a level that has repeatedly determined its trajectory over the past several years. On January 16, it reached $3.39 but failed to break through. A sharp 43% drop followed on February 3, triggered by broader market panic over geopolitical trade tensions.
Yet, XRP has rebounded strongly and is once again testing this pivotal range. What makes this moment different is the potential completion of a rounding bottom pattern that began forming in 2018 — a seven-year accumulation phase. If XRP surpasses $3.89 (its all-time high), this pattern will be confirmed, opening the door to uncharted price discovery.
Three key catalysts could provide the final push:
- ETF Approval: Institutional inflows could drive massive volume and break resistance.
- Strategic Adoption: Integration into financial reserves or major payment systems would boost utility and demand.
- Legal Clarity: A favorable outcome in the ongoing SEC lawsuit appeal could remove long-standing uncertainty.
With no historical resistance beyond $3.89, any breakout could lead to exponential gains.
👉 See how ETF speculation is reshaping XRP’s price trajectory in real time.
Can History Repeat? Technical Signals Point to a 1,500% Surge
Analysts are drawing strong parallels between current market conditions and XRP’s explosive 2017 bull run. Egrag Crypto points to the Bull Market Support Band (BMSB), a technical indicator showing XRP trading above key support levels — just as it did before its historic rally.
In 2017, XRP tested the BMSB before launching into a 1,500% surge within four weeks, reaching the Fibonacci 1.618 extension level. If history repeats, Egrag predicts a similar move — potentially sending XRP to $27.
Javon Marks goes even further, noting that recent price action mirrors the 2017 breakout pattern. His second target? A staggering $99, representing nearly a 3,900% increase from current levels.
Elliott Wave theory adds another layer of support. Dark Defender’s analysis identifies XRP in Wave 4 of an Intermediate Cycle, with Wave 5 targeting $5.85. On a longer timeframe, Primary Cycle Waves suggest a move toward **$18.22** — aligning with broader bullish expectations.
“I’ve used the same structure since July 2023, and we are following it as the Northern Star,” Dark Defender stated, emphasizing consistency in price behavior.
While these projections are speculative, they reflect growing confidence among technical analysts that XRP is positioned for a major move — provided it clears current resistance.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What would trigger an XRP price surge?
A: The biggest catalysts include SEC approval of an ETF, resolution of the ongoing lawsuit, or widespread institutional adoption.
Q: Is XRP considered a security?
A: In August 2023, a federal judge ruled that XRP is not a security when traded on secondary markets. However, regulatory uncertainty persists due to the SEC’s appeal.
Q: How likely is an XRP ETF approval?
A: Bloomberg analysts estimate a 65% chance by late 2025, making it one of the most probable altcoin ETFs after Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Q: What is the significance of the rounding bottom pattern?
A: This long-term accumulation pattern suggests strong buying pressure over years. A breakout confirms bullish momentum with no historical resistance ahead.
Q: Can XRP reach $27?
A: While ambitious, a 1,500% surge to $27 is technically possible if ETF approval drives institutional demand and market conditions align.
Q: Should I invest in XRP now?
A: Always conduct your own research and assess risk tolerance. While upside potential exists, crypto markets are volatile and unpredictable.
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Final Thoughts: A Pivotal Moment for XRP
XRP stands at a crossroads. Regulatory developments, technical patterns, and growing institutional interest are converging like never before. The possibility of an ETF approval could be the catalyst that propels it past long-standing resistance and into new territory.
While nothing is guaranteed in crypto, the combination of technical momentum, legal progress, and macro tailwinds makes this one of the most compelling setups in recent memory. Whether you're watching for a breakout to $5.85, $18.22, or even $27, one thing is clear: XRP’s next move could define its decade.
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