Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in a tight range, triggering liquidations for leveraged long-position holders amid sudden market swings. Despite short-term volatility, bullish sentiment remains resilient, underpinned by strong fundamentals across the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem. On-chain data, institutional adoption, and macro-level developments suggest growing confidence — even as high-profile traders navigate high-risk strategies in pursuit of outsized returns.
A High-Stakes Comeback: AguilaTrades Reenters the Market
On June 20, on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain reported that AguilaTrades — one of the most watched traders on ByBit — has reestablished a massive long position in Bitcoin. This new trade consists of 3,854 BTC, valued at approximately $408 million**, currently sitting on **$3.2 million in unrealized gains.
👉 See how top traders manage massive positions in volatile markets.
This marks a bold return for AguilaTrades, who previously incurred **$15.4 million in losses within just 10 days** due to failure to secure profits during a sharp reversal. That trade initially showed a paper gain of $10 million before collapsing into a $2.5 million drawdown — echoing an earlier pattern where a $5.8 million profit turned into a devastating $12.47 million loss.
Now operating on Hyperliquid, the trader migrated after reportedly earning $77.36 million in profits on ByBit during 2023**. The current position is leveraged at **20x**, with a liquidation price set at **$103,330 — meaning Bitcoin must stay well above that level to avoid total wipeout.
The question on many investors’ minds: Will this time be different? Or is history poised to repeat itself as greed clashes with market reality?
Macro Trends Fueling Bullish Momentum
AguilaTrades’ aggressive reentry aligns with a broader shift in macro sentiment toward cryptocurrencies. Several key catalysts are reinforcing positive market dynamics:
- El Salvador expands Bitcoin adoption: The nation has installed new BTC/USD kiosks at its main international airport, further integrating Bitcoin into daily commerce.
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs attract institutional capital: These products continue drawing strong inflows from traditional finance players, signaling deepening market maturity.
- Bitcoin options expiry adds upward pressure: With over $5.8 trillion in open contracts expiring today, derivatives markets are primed for volatility — often preceding significant price moves.
These developments reflect growing legitimacy and structural demand for Bitcoin, even during periods of sideways trading.
Whale Accumulation vs. Retail Exodus: What On-Chain Data Reveals
Santiment’s latest on-chain analysis highlights a telling divergence between large holders (whales) and retail investors:
- Whale wallets (10+ BTC) increased by 231 in the past 10 days
- Retail wallets (0.001–10 BTC) declined by 37,465 over the same period
This trend — where whales accumulate while smaller investors exit — has historically preceded major bullish breakouts in Bitcoin’s price.
With BTC currently trading above $104,300, the market structure resembles previous accumulation phases that led to explosive rallies. Combined with tightening supply on exchanges and increasing holder conviction, these signals suggest underlying strength despite surface-level stagnation.
👉 Discover how whale movements can predict the next big market move.
Market Structure Points to Expansion Phase
Crypto analyst BitBull has identified a recurring pattern known as the "Power-of-3" market structure, which breaks down Bitcoin’s cycles into three distinct phases:
- Accumulation (Jan–Feb 2025): Smart money quietly builds positions.
- Manipulation (Mar–Apr 2025): Volatility spikes, trapping weak hands.
- Expansion (Current Phase): Sustained upward momentum begins.
According to BitBull, Bitcoin is now firmly in the expansion phase, supported by today’s dual crypto and stock options expiry events. While short-term consolidation may persist for a few more days, the stage appears set for a volatile breakout.
Projected Price Targets: Where Could Bitcoin Go Next?
Building on technical structure and historical patterns, BitBull forecasts a potential surge toward $130,000–$135,000 following the current consolidation. This would represent a significant move from current levels, driven by pent-up buying pressure and reduced selling supply.
Other analysts echo this optimism. One recent projection suggests that if current growth cycle indicators hold, Bitcoin could climb up to 120% in 2025, reaching a peak of $205,097.
While such targets remain speculative, they underscore growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory — especially when viewed through the lens of adoption trends, halving effects, and macroeconomic tailwinds like inflation hedging and de-dollarization efforts.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Who is AguilaTrades?
A: AguilaTrades is a high-profile crypto trader known for executing large leveraged positions on platforms like ByBit and Hyperliquid. The trader gained attention for both massive gains and dramatic reversals due to untimely exits.
Q: What does 20x leverage mean for this trade?
A: A 20x leverage multiplies both potential gains and risks. With a $408M position backed by ~$20.4M in collateral, a drop below $103,330 could trigger full liquidation of the position.
Q: Why are whale movements important?
A: Whales often have better information and longer time horizons. Their accumulation during downturns typically signals confidence in future price appreciation.
Q: What is the Power-of-3 market structure?
A: It's a cyclical model identifying three phases in Bitcoin’s market behavior: Accumulation (smart money enters), Manipulation (volatility shakes out weak holders), and Expansion (sustained price rise).
Q: How does options expiry affect Bitcoin’s price?
A: Large expiries can cause short-term volatility as market makers adjust hedges. Historically, bullish skew in open interest often leads to upward price pressure post-expiry.
Q: Is retail selling a bearish sign?
A: Not necessarily. Short-term retail outflows during consolidation phases are common. When paired with whale buying, it often indicates a transfer of supply from weak to strong hands — a bullish development.
Final Outlook: High Risk Meets High Reward
The story of AguilaTrades embodies the high-stakes nature of modern crypto trading — where immense profits coexist with catastrophic losses. While past behavior raises concerns about emotional decision-making, the current market environment offers stronger fundamental support than during previous downturns.
With institutional adoption accelerating, on-chain metrics favoring accumulation, and technical structures aligning for breakout potential, the odds may be shifting in favor of long-term bulls.
👉 Stay ahead of market shifts with real-time data and advanced trading tools.
Whether AguilaTrades locks in profits this time or repeats past mistakes remains to be seen. But one thing is clear: in the world of Bitcoin trading, timing, discipline, and risk management matter more than ever.
Core Keywords: Bitcoin, BTC trader, long position, whale accumulation, options expiry, market structure, leveraged trading, price prediction