Bitcoin has firmly established itself above the $90,000 mark over the past week, signaling growing momentum as the coveted $100,000 price target comes into clear view. According to Alex Thorn, Head of Firmwide Research at Galaxy Digital, multiple macro and micro factors are aligning to support a sustained bull run. While short-term volatility remains inevitable, the underlying fundamentals suggest that Bitcoin is not just approaching $100K—it may be poised to break through it.
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The Road to $100,000: A Psychological and Technical Milestone
On November 24, Bitcoin surged to an all-time high of $99,860 before pulling back by approximately 8%, briefly dipping to $91,420. Though this correction sparked discussion across trading communities, it pales in comparison to historical drawdowns seen during previous bull phases. In fact, such a minor pullback under today’s intense market scrutiny highlights the growing maturity and resilience of Bitcoin’s price structure.
This resilience reflects what market analysts often describe as “climbing a wall of worry”—a phrase Alex Thorn used to characterize the current environment. Despite regulatory uncertainties and short-term profit-taking, investor confidence remains strong. Institutional interest, improving policy signals, and robust on-chain metrics all point toward continued upward pressure in both the near and medium term.
Historical Context: Why This Correction Is Different
Bitcoin has never followed a straight line to new highs. Throughout its history, the asset has endured significant drawdowns—even during strong bull markets. In 2024 alone, Bitcoin experienced a 40% peak-to-trough decline between March 14 and November 6, fluctuating between $73,835 and $49,025 during a prolonged consolidation phase.
By contrast, the recent 8% correction appears mild and healthy—a natural response to rapid price appreciation. Notably, Bitcoin saw at least five drawdowns of 15% or more earlier in 2024, underscoring how volatile previous phases were compared to today’s relatively stable ascent. These periodic pullbacks serve to shake out weaker hands and reset leverage, ultimately strengthening the foundation for further gains.
Supply Dynamics: Who Is Selling Bitcoin?
One of the most revealing indicators of market health lies in on-chain supply behavior. As prices climbed post-election, long-term holders (LTHs) did reduce their supply slightly—but crucially, this trend is driven by recent long-term holders who accumulated between $56,000 and $72,000 earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, truly long-term holders—those who have held Bitcoin for multiple years—are showing no signs of exiting. Metrics like Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) remain stable, indicating that older, more entrenched coins are not moving. This suggests that early adopters and core believers remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
Further insight comes from the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) metric, which shows concentrated ownership among coins minted between March and November 2024. This concentration implies that current sell-side pressure stems primarily from traders taking profits—not from panic selling by whales or foundational investors.
Below the $87,000 level, on-chain data reveals sparse ownership density. That means anyone who bought Bitcoin after mid-November would be sitting on unrealized losses if prices fell further—a scenario that could trigger strong buying support before any deeper correction takes hold.
Options Market Signals a Bullish Outlook
The derivatives market offers another powerful lens into investor sentiment. Open interest in options tied to spot-based Bitcoin ETFs now exceeds $4.1 billion**, with **$3.1 billion concentrated in call options at strike prices of $93,000 or higher. This positioning reflects strong conviction among institutional and retail traders alike that Bitcoin will continue its upward trajectory.
A particularly important dynamic involves gamma exposure. Crypto-native dealers are currently net short gamma at $93,000, meaning they must buy Bitcoin as prices rise to hedge their positions. This creates a self-reinforcing cycle: rising prices force dealers to buy more, which pushes prices even higher—a phenomenon known as gamma squeeze.
This effect is expected to amplify momentum toward the $100,000 threshold. However, analysts note a shift around **$106,000**, where gamma exposure flattens and volatility may stabilize or even decline. Still, reaching that level would represent a monumental milestone in Bitcoin’s market evolution.
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Policy Shifts and Adoption Trends Fueling Growth
Beyond technical and on-chain factors, macro-level developments are increasingly supportive of Bitcoin’s growth.
Pro-Bitcoin U.S. Leadership on the Horizon
With key appointments like Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance expressing strong pro-Bitcoin views, there’s growing optimism about regulatory reform. One major proposal gaining traction is shifting digital asset oversight from the SEC to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)—a move widely seen as more favorable for innovation and market clarity.
Such a shift could reduce regulatory overreach and create a clearer path for financial institutions to engage with crypto assets.
Institutional Expansion Accelerates
Greater regulatory clarity may soon allow traditional finance giants like JPMorgan and Citigroup to expand their crypto offerings. Whether through custody solutions, trading desks, or direct investment products, broader participation from Wall Street would significantly deepen market liquidity and legitimacy.
Global Adoption Gains Momentum
Internationally, countries are reevaluating restrictive crypto policies. Morocco, for instance, is reconsidering its previous ban on cryptocurrency transactions. Meanwhile, discussions around establishing a U.S. Bitcoin strategic reserve have gained renewed attention, echoing similar moves by nations like El Salvador.
Events such as Bitcoin MENA in Abu Dhabi are also serving as catalysts for regional adoption announcements, drawing policymakers, entrepreneurs, and investors into the ecosystem.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is $100,000 a realistic target for Bitcoin?
A: Yes—based on current momentum, institutional positioning, and on-chain data, many analysts believe $100K is not only possible but likely within the next 12–18 months.
Q: What causes Bitcoin corrections during bull runs?
A: Corrections are normal and often triggered by profit-taking, leverage unwinding, or short-term sentiment shifts. They help reset overbought conditions and strengthen long-term trends.
Q: Are whales selling Bitcoin now?
A: No significant whale movement has been detected. On-chain data shows that older coins are staying put; selling pressure comes mainly from traders who bought in 2024.
Q: How do options markets influence Bitcoin’s price?
A: High call option open interest creates upward pressure. Dealers hedging short gamma positions must buy as prices rise, accelerating rallies—especially near key strike levels like $93K–$100K.
Q: Could regulation slow Bitcoin’s growth?
A: While regulatory risks exist, the current U.S. political climate appears increasingly favorable. A shift to CFTC oversight could actually promote innovation rather than hinder it.
Q: What happens after Bitcoin hits $100,000?
A: Historically, psychological barriers tend to become new floors once broken. Post-$100K, focus may shift toward $125K–$150K targets, supported by ETF inflows and global adoption.
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Conclusion: Breaking Through the $100K Barrier
Despite periodic corrections and short-term profit-taking, Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain exceptionally strong. The convergence of institutional adoption, favorable policy trends, resilient on-chain behavior, and bullish options positioning paints a compelling picture for sustained growth.
As Alex Thorn concludes, “The setup for Bitcoin over the next 12 to 24 months appears unique and bullish.” With support levels holding firm and momentum building across multiple fronts, the $100,000 threshold is no longer a distant dream—it’s an imminent reality waiting to be unlocked.
Bitcoin isn’t just climbing; it’s accelerating toward a new era of mainstream recognition and value appreciation.