The crypto journey is often described in cycles—three, to be exact. The first cycle teaches you the fundamentals: how blockchain works, the emotional rollercoaster of volatility, and the hard lessons of FOMO and poor research. The second cycle is about refinement—applying what you’ve learned to generate real returns and gain confidence. The third? That’s where financial freedom becomes a tangible possibility.
For me, this is my second bear market—and soon, my third bull run. I’m not just observing this phase; I’m preparing for what comes next.
There’s a strong sense of déjà vu in today’s crypto landscape. It’s not just the price stagnation or slow grind sideways. It’s the mood: regulatory scrutiny, public skepticism branding crypto as a scam, and a PvP (player-versus-player) environment where gains come from hopping between tokens rather than broad market expansion.
If you’ve been in crypto since before or during the last bear market, you’ve likely felt this before. And that familiarity? It’s a powerful edge. Past experience builds intuition—your mistakes and insights from previous cycles become the foundation for navigating the next bull market.
Yes, each cycle has unique traits. But structurally, they follow a remarkably similar pattern.
Let’s explore how history is repeating itself—and what that means for the next phase of growth.
The Feeling of Déjà Vu in Crypto Markets
Déjà vu—the sensation that you’ve lived through the present moment before—is fleeting for most experiences. In crypto, however, this feeling has lingered for years.
I entered during the 2017 bull run, drawn in by BBC headlines of Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs. FOMO hit hard. I bought BTC, watched it double, and felt like a genius. That excitement quickly turned into overconfidence—why stop at Bitcoin when there were dozens of cheaper, “revolutionary” altcoins?
I switched from Bitstamp to Gate.io, charmed by its chaotic interface filled with colorful coin logos. My “research” consisted of skimming whitepapers and project websites. Decentralized storage! Decentralized banking! Everything sounded groundbreaking.
Soon, I was dumping my scholarship money into obscure tokens—many chosen purely by logo color. No due diligence. Just hype.
Spoiler: I lost most of it.
None of those projects delivered real value. No working product—just websites and promises.
This story is tragically common. Greed, naivety, and lack of experience lead to costly mistakes. Many walk away permanently. But those who stay, reflect, and learn? They’re the ones who thrive in future cycles.
I was devastated—but also curious. That curiosity became my driving force to keep studying and writing about crypto.
👉 Discover how seasoned investors spot the early signs of the next bull run before the crowd.
The Second Cycle: Lessons from 2018–2020
Curiosity and greed are powerful motivators.
After the 2018 crash, I stayed engaged. By late 2018, I landed my first job at a Korean exchange, where I spent four years learning market-making, analyzing hundreds of tokens, and attending industry events.
But the market was quiet—eerily so. Sound familiar?
That calm mirrors today’s environment in striking ways:
- Regulatory crackdowns on ICOs (especially in Asia), much like current Western scrutiny.
- Crypto being labeled a scam or “dead” over 385 times—and counting.
- Institutions slowly entering (Bitcoin ETFs now vs. early institutional BTC buying then).
- Capital rotating between tokens without expanding total market value.
- The long wait for mass adoption.
Back then, options were limited: no DeFi, no NFTs. Trading happened almost entirely on centralized exchanges. The most exciting thing? IEOs and EOS’s $4.2 billion token sale—which delivered little.
Then, everything changed.
In early 2020, I discovered Ampleforth (AMPL)—a token with elastic supply. Its “rebase” mechanism automatically adjusted supply based on price: minting more if above $1.06, burning if below $0.96. You didn’t own a fixed amount—you owned a share of total supply.
It was bizarre, fascinating—and profitable.
But AMPL was just the beginning.
Soon came liquidity mining with COMP and BAL, rewarding users with free tokens for providing liquidity. Then YFI—distributed entirely through yield farming. Deposit stablecoins into Curve? Get high yields and free YFI.
It felt surreal. And when something feels that revolutionary, pay attention.
New tokenomics models were emerging—mechanisms that could reshape the entire ecosystem. But they also carried risks.
SushiSwap introduced a two-pool system: deposit ETH/USDT to earn SUSHI, or stake SUSHI to earn more SUSHI. It worked—for a while. But it was a Ponzi-like structure: prices rose only as long as new users joined.
Eventually, attention fragmented. New farms launched daily, but capital inflows slowed. Yields dropped. TVL fled to higher returns. The model collapsed.
But here’s the lesson: every crash teaches us something. These patterns repeat—if you know when to exit.
How Bull Markets Begin (and End)
A popular framework, SecretsOfCrypto’s “Road to Altseason,” explains how capital flows from Bitcoin to smaller caps as confidence grows.
But there’s another force at play: native crypto money printing.
We criticize central banks for diluting fiat currency. Yet crypto is arguably the most efficient money-printing machine ever created.
Think about it:
- After Bitcoin’s launch, Litecoin (2011) and Ethereum (2015) emerged as early “competitors.”
- Then came Bitcoin forks—BCH, BSV—essentially distributing free coins to BTC holders.
- With ERC-20 tokens, issuing new coins became cheap and easy. Thousands launched with little more than a website and whitepaper.
The problem? Too many tokens chasing too little capital.
When inflows can’t keep up with issuance, prices collapse. Attention scatters. The bubble bursts.
This repeated in DeFi Summer: protocols issued governance tokens via airdrops and liquidity mining. The goal? Bootstrapping liquidity for platforms like Uniswap and Aave.
But again—when token emissions outpaced new capital, the market corrected.
NFTs followed the same path: CryptoPunks and BAYC created FOMO, spawning endless new collections. When demand couldn’t sustain supply? Prices crashed.
Today, only a few NFT projects remain strong—a sign the market may be near its bottom.
The Next Bull Run: Same Mechanisms, New Narratives
The path to the next bull market starts not with new money—but with innovation leveraging existing capital.
DeFi Summer proved this: before BTC and ETH surged, DeFi tokens rallied on native user activity—staking ETH and stablecoins to earn new tokens with compelling narratives.
That early wealth attracted newcomers—who then bought ETH and BTC.
Today, we’re in a similar pre-bull phase: infrastructure is building, narratives forming, but mass attention hasn’t arrived.
Two emerging trends stand out:
Re-Staking: The Next Yield Engine
EigenLayer leads this narrative.
It allows Ethereum stakers to “re-stake” their ETH—securing not just Ethereum but additional networks (like rollups). In return? Higher yields.
Yes—you guessed it—a new token will reward this risk.
Already, liquid restaking tokens like rsETH from Stader are emerging.
But this isn’t just an Ethereum story. Cosmos has “Replicated Security,” letting ATOM stakers lend security to chains like Neutron.
Expect more chains to adopt restaking—just as they once adopted liquidity mining.
Bitcoin DeFi: Unlocking Trillions
This narrative is still under the radar—even among EVM enthusiasts.
Ordinals and Inscriptions have proven demand for NFTs and tokens on Bitcoin. But they lack sustainable tokenomics.
Enter Stacks—a smart contract layer that settles transactions on Bitcoin.
Its upcoming sBTC is a decentralized bridge: 1:1 pegged BTC that moves between Bitcoin and Stacks without centralized custodians (unlike wBTC).
This unlocks real DeFi potential for Bitcoin holders.
One standout project? Alex Lab (ALEX).
ALEX dominates Stacks’ DeFi space with AMM-powered trading and lending—settled on Bitcoin. It’s also building bridges for USDT and introducing on-chain BRC20 wrappers, enabling full DeFi functionality for Bitcoin-based tokens.
With limited places to deploy BTC in DeFi today, capital will concentrate on early leaders like Alex.
When Will the Bull Run Begin?
Both restaking and Bitcoin DeFi stand out because they combine strong narratives with innovative tokenomics—issuing new tokens while managing inflation through utility and adoption.
But sustained growth needs fresh capital.
Right now, narratives rise and fall due to limited inflows. However, these stories could attract external investment—especially from ETH buyers entering restaking, and BTC holders engaging with Bitcoin DeFi.
Remember: both will eventually face over-issuance. Too many tokens will flood the market. Hype will fade.
Don’t fall for every story sold to you. Have an exit strategy ready.
Timing matters—and macro conditions are improving. Fed liquidity cycles, geopolitical tensions, and inflation appear to have peaked. Regulatory pressure is easing slightly.
Based on historical patterns, many analysts expect Bitcoin to hit $69K by Q4 2024, with a new all-time high in late 2025 during full bull mania.
If that happens, the next “money printing” phase—driven by restaking and Bitcoin DeFi—will begin well before then.
Now is the time to study, prepare, and position wisely.
👉 Join thousands of informed traders getting ahead of the next market surge—start your research today.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: How many crypto cycles should I experience before becoming profitable?
A: Most seasoned investors suggest three full cycles: one to learn, one to earn cautiously, and one to capitalize fully. Experience builds pattern recognition crucial for timing entries and exits.
Q: Is history really repeating in crypto markets?
A: While each cycle has unique technologies (DeFi, NFTs, restaking), the psychological and structural patterns—FOMO, speculation, regulatory fear, innovation-driven rallies—are remarkably consistent.
Q: What signals indicate a new bull run is starting?
A: Watch for rising institutional inflows (e.g., ETF volumes), increasing on-chain activity, new narrative-driven token launches (like restaking), and declining fear in sentiment indexes.
Q: Are restaking and Bitcoin DeFi too risky?
A: All early-stage innovations carry risk—smart contract bugs, over-issuance, regulatory uncertainty. But early participation offers asymmetric upside if the narrative gains traction.
Q: How do I avoid losing money in the next bubble?
A: Focus on projects with real utility, avoid over-leveraging, diversify across narratives, and set profit-taking targets before euphoria peaks.
Q: Should I wait for new money to enter before investing?
A: Early movers often earn the most. While macro inflows accelerate bull runs, smart capital allocation during accumulation phases—based on fundamentals—can yield outsized returns.