Ethereum’s native token, ETH, ended March with an 18.47% decline, marking its fourth consecutive monthly bearish candle. This prolonged downtrend reflects sustained selling pressure and a broader loss of market momentum — the first time such a pattern has emerged since the depths of the 2022 bear market.
With each monthly close registering lower than the previous, investors and analysts are now asking a critical question: Is Ethereum nearing a bottom, or does more downside lie ahead? While price action paints a bearish picture, on-chain metrics and historical trends suggest a potential turning point could be forming.
👉 Discover how market cycles influence crypto rebounds and what it means for your strategy.
ETH/BTC Ratio Hits Five-Year Low
On March 30, the ETH/BTC ratio dropped to 0.021 — its lowest level in five years. This metric, which measures Ethereum’s value relative to Bitcoin, underscores a prolonged period of underperformance for the leading altcoin.
The last time the ratio touched 0.021 was in May 2020, when ETH traded between $150 and $300. Since then, despite massive growth in decentralized applications and network upgrades like The Merge, Ethereum has failed to outperform Bitcoin on a relative basis.
A declining ETH/BTC ratio typically signals risk-off sentiment in the broader crypto market. Investors tend to flock to Bitcoin during uncertain periods, treating it as a safer digital asset compared to altcoins like Ethereum.
Network Activity Hits Multi-Year Lows
According to Token Terminal, Ethereum’s monthly revenue — derived from transaction fees — fell to $22 million in March 2025, the lowest since June 2020. This sharp drop indicates weakening network demand and reduced user activity.
Transaction fees on Ethereum are directly tied to network usage. When fewer people interact with dApps, trade on decentralized exchanges, or mint NFTs, fee income declines — a clear sign of shrinking ecosystem engagement.
This fee contraction mirrors broader market apathy, often seen near cyclical lows.
Despite these bearish fundamentals, some analysts believe the worst may already be priced in. One key indicator offering hope is the historical behavior of Ethereum following extended losing streaks.
Historical Patterns Suggest a Reversal Could Be Near
Since its inception, Ethereum has experienced five previous instances of three or more consecutive monthly losses. In every case, these streaks preceded short-term market bottoms followed by meaningful recoveries.
For example:
- In 2018, Ethereum endured seven straight red months — the longest losing streak in its history — before rebounding with an 83% gain.
- In 2022, after three consecutive monthly declines, ETH entered a prolonged consolidation phase but found support in June, setting the foundation for future growth.
👉 Explore how past market cycles can help predict future price movements.
Seasonality Favors a Q2 Recovery
Historical data reveals a strong seasonal pattern in Ethereum’s performance. April has historically delivered positive returns 75% of the time, suggesting a high probability of a green candle this month.
Even more encouraging is Ethereum’s track record in the second quarter (April–June). Among all quarters, Q2 has seen the fewest drawdowns and boasts an average return of 60.59% — significantly higher than other periods.
| Key Historical Insights |
|---|
| - 75% chance of positive April returns |
| - Q2 average return: 60.59% |
| - Lowest number of quarterly declines in Q2 |
| - All prior 3+ month losing streaks led to reversals |
While past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, this consistent seasonality adds weight to bullish arguments for the coming months.
Analysts See Light at the End of the Tunnel
VentureFounder, a well-known Ethereum analyst, believes the ETH/BTC ratio may be nearing a long-term bottom. He identifies a potential support zone between 0.017 and 0.022, with the current 0.021 level sitting at the upper end of that range.
He acknowledges that prices could dip further before reversing:
“Relative Strength Index (RSI) may print new lows, and we might see one final leg down. The current macro environment closely resembles the Fed’s tightening and QE cycles from 2018–2019. I expect the first higher high to emerge after the May FOMC meeting, when QT ends and QE begins.”
This macro-driven outlook ties Ethereum’s fate not just to crypto-specific factors, but to broader financial conditions — particularly U.S. monetary policy.
When quantitative tightening (QT) ends and central banks pivot toward stimulus (QE), risk assets like cryptocurrencies tend to rally. If history repeats, mid-2025 could mark the start of a new accumulation phase.
On-Chain Signals: Quiet Before the Storm?
While fee revenue is low and trading volume subdued, these conditions often precede major market turns. Periods of low volatility and declining interest typically reflect capitulation — when weak hands exit and smart money begins accumulating.
Additionally, Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake and ongoing layer-2 scaling efforts continue to strengthen its long-term value proposition. Despite short-term price weakness, protocol innovation hasn’t slowed.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: What does a four-month losing streak mean for Ethereum?
A: While concerning, Ethereum has historically rebounded strongly after similar losing streaks. Each prior occurrence led to a short-term bottom followed by significant upside.
Q: Why is the ETH/BTC ratio important?
A: It shows whether altcoins are gaining or losing strength relative to Bitcoin. A rising ratio favors altcoin seasons; a falling one suggests risk aversion and capital rotation into BTC.
Q: Can Ethereum recover if fees remain low?
A: Yes. Low fees often reflect depressed sentiment rather than broken fundamentals. As market conditions improve, activity tends to return quickly due to Ethereum’s dominant position in DeFi and NFTs.
Q: Is now a good time to buy ETH?
A: From a historical and seasonal perspective, late Q1 into Q2 has often been an ideal entry window. However, dollar-cost averaging may reduce risk amid ongoing volatility.
Q: How does U.S. monetary policy affect Ethereum?
A: Tightening cycles (high rates, QT) pressure risk assets. Easing cycles (rate cuts, QE) typically boost investor appetite for speculative assets like crypto.
👉 Learn how macroeconomic shifts impact digital asset markets and stay ahead of the curve.
Final Thoughts
Ethereum’s fourth straight monthly loss highlights persistent bearish momentum, but deeper metrics suggest we may be nearing a pivotal moment. The ETH/BTC ratio’s five-year low, combined with weak fee income, reflects maximum pessimism — often a contrarian signal.
Historically, every multi-month losing streak has ended in recovery. With favorable seasonality pointing toward strong Q2 returns and macro conditions potentially shifting in May, Ethereum could be setting up for a turnaround.
While short-term pain remains possible — including another leg down — the long-term setup appears increasingly attractive. For patient investors, current conditions may represent one of the better accumulation windows in recent years.
Always conduct your own research and consider market conditions before making investment decisions.