The race for the next wave of cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is heating up, with XRP and Solana (SOL) emerging as top contenders. According to ETF expert Nate Geraci, president of ETF Store, it's only a matter of time before BlackRock enters the arena with a potential XRP or Solana ETF. While the world’s largest asset manager has not yet filed any official applications, growing momentum in regulatory clarity and market demand suggests that such a move could be imminent.
With Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs already approved and performing strongly, attention has now shifted to what comes next. Analysts believe that altcoin ETFs—particularly those tied to XRP and SOL—are poised for significant developments in 2025, especially as infrastructure like regulated futures markets strengthens their case for approval.
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Why XRP Is Gaining Ground for ETF Approval
One of the biggest hurdles for any cryptocurrency seeking an ETF is regulatory acceptance. For years, XRP faced uncertainty due to the ongoing legal battle between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, recent court rulings have clarified that XRP is not inherently a security when sold to retail investors—a pivotal shift that strengthens its eligibility for a spot ETF.
This legal clarity has been a game-changer. As Nate Geraci points out, the launch of CME Group’s regulated XRP futures contracts marks a critical milestone. Historically, the existence of a robust, transparent futures market has preceded the approval of spot ETFs in other asset classes. The CME listing provides regulators with a reliable price discovery mechanism, reducing concerns about manipulation and volatility.
Additionally, Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund already holds XRP among its assets. Analysts suggest this fund could potentially convert into a dedicated XRP ETF—a path successfully taken by Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Such a conversion would streamline the approval process, leveraging existing regulatory frameworks.
Despite these positives, the SEC has delayed decisions on multiple XRP ETF applications. Firms like Bitwise, 21Shares, WisdomTree, Grayscale, and Franklin Templeton have all submitted filings, but none have received final approval. The SEC extended its review period for 21Shares’ proposal to October, while Grayscale’s May application remains under consideration.
Solana ETF Prospects: Strong Momentum but Regulatory Questions Remain
While XRP gains legal traction, Solana is also making waves in the ETF conversation. Polymarket data shows a 90% implied probability of a SOL ETF approval—slightly ahead of XRP’s 87%. Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Eric Balchunas has even coined the phrase “altcoin ETF summer,” suggesting that 2025 could see a surge in approvals beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Solana’s high throughput, low transaction costs, and growing ecosystem of decentralized applications (dApps) make it an attractive candidate. Its market capitalization and trading volume rival those of established layer-1 blockchains, meeting key liquidity benchmarks.
However, unlike XRP, Solana lacks a regulated U.S.-based futures market—a factor that may slow down the SEC’s decision-making. Without a futures benchmark from CME or another major exchange, regulators may remain cautious about approving a spot SOL ETF.
Still, if BlackRock or another major player files an application, it could catalyze rapid development in supporting infrastructure. Given BlackRock’s influence in shaping financial markets, even the rumor of an impending filing can shift sentiment and accelerate institutional interest.
Global Momentum for XRP ETFs Builds Outside the U.S.
While the U.S. remains in deliberation mode, international markets are moving forward. Brazil recently became the first country to approve a spot XRP ETF, signaling growing global confidence in the asset’s compliance and utility. In Switzerland, 21Shares launched the AXRP ETP (exchange-traded product), offering European investors exposure to XRP with full regulatory oversight.
These international launches serve as real-world test cases for how XRP ETFs perform under regulated frameworks. They demonstrate that proper custody solutions, transparent pricing mechanisms, and anti-manipulation safeguards are achievable—key points that U.S. regulators are likely monitoring closely.
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Why Hasn’t BlackRock Moved Yet?
BlackRock currently focuses on its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), both of which have seen strong inflows since launch. In past statements, Samara Cohen, head of digital assets at BlackRock, emphasized that only assets with deep liquidity and proven maturity meet their criteria for product development.
At the time, that excluded most altcoins—including XRP and SOL. But with evolving market conditions and clearer legal status for XRP, analysts question whether BlackRock’s stance has quietly shifted. The firm has shown agility in responding to regulatory trends, and entering the altcoin ETF space would align with its long-term strategy of dominating digital asset investment products.
Moreover, competition is rising. With firms like Grayscale and Bitwise pushing forward on multiple fronts, waiting too long could mean ceding first-mover advantage in a potentially massive new market.
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Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
Q: Is a BlackRock XRP ETF confirmed?
A: No official filing has been made yet. However, industry experts like Nate Geraci believe it's only a matter of time given BlackRock’s track record and improving regulatory conditions.
Q: What is required for an altcoin ETF to be approved?
A: The SEC typically looks for sufficient liquidity, a regulated futures market (like CME), anti-manipulation measures, and clear regulatory classification of the asset as non-security.
Q: Can Grayscale’s fund convert into an XRP ETF?
A: Yes—Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund already includes XRP. A conversion similar to GBTC’s transformation into a Bitcoin ETF is possible if SEC conditions are met.
Q: When might we see the first U.S. XRP or SOL ETF?
A: If no major setbacks occur, approvals could come in late 2025, especially following continued global adoption and stronger market infrastructure.
Q: Does CME offering XRP futures increase ETF chances?
A: Absolutely. Regulated futures provide price transparency and reduce manipulation risks—two major concerns for the SEC when evaluating spot ETF applications.
Q: How do international XRP ETFs impact U.S. approval odds?
A: They serve as live case studies showing compliance feasibility. Success abroad adds pressure on U.S. regulators to keep pace with global financial innovation.
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