Bitcoin’s recent rally has reignited speculation across the crypto market. After climbing to $109,792 on July 2 — a 20-day high — investors are once again asking: *Is this the start of a breakout toward $115,000, or another false dawn before a sharp correction?* With strong on-chain momentum and growing retail interest, the stage is set for a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
This article dives deep into the current market dynamics, analyzing on-chain data, sentiment indicators, and key resistance levels to assess whether Bitcoin has the strength to push past critical thresholds — or if a pullback looms just ahead.
👉 Discover how market momentum could propel Bitcoin to new highs in 2025
Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance at $111,000
Bitcoin’s price action over the past month has followed a familiar pattern. After breaking above $111,000, BTC has now approached this level for the second time in just over six weeks. Historically, such retests of major resistance zones serve as critical inflection points for future direction.
During its first attempt, Bitcoin was swiftly rejected at $110,350, triggering a 10.8% decline within two weeks. Now, history may be repeating itself — but with different underlying fundamentals.
Data from Binance shows that 67% of active trading accounts are currently positioned on the short side, anticipating a similar rejection. This concentration of bearish bets increases the potential for a short squeeze if bullish momentum accelerates.
Moreover, open interest across major futures markets has climbed to nearly $78 billion — matching levels seen just before the previous sharp drop. At that time, an influx of $10 billion in leveraged positions amplified volatility when the market reversed.
While price is flirting with resistance again, trading volume tells a cautious story. The Taker Buy/Sell Ratio has declined by 3.71%, suggesting that aggressive buying pressure is cooling despite the upward move. This divergence indicates that large buyers may be holding back, waiting for clearer confirmation before committing more capital.
On-Chain Activity Signals Growing Confidence
Despite hesitation in derivatives markets, on-chain metrics paint a more optimistic picture. On July 2, Bitcoin surged 2.93%, closing at $109,792 — its highest close in three weeks. More importantly, network activity spiked: 25,812 new addresses interacted with the Bitcoin blockchain that day, an 8.17% increase from the previous day and a monthly high.
This surge in new address creation reflects growing retail participation — often a precursor to broader market adoption and sustained price appreciation. When new users enter the ecosystem, they bring fresh capital and long-term holding demand, reducing circulating supply.
Additionally, short-term holder (STH) supply has been steadily rising. These are coins held by addresses that acquired BTC within the last 155 days. An increase in STH supply typically signals renewed investor confidence and accumulation behavior.
At the same time, long-term holders (LTHs) — those who’ve held Bitcoin for more than 155 days — now control a record 14.7 million BTC, according to Glassnode. Remarkably, much of the supply purchased during the breakout above $100,000 remains untouched, indicating strong conviction among early buyers.
This combination — reduced selling pressure from long-term holders and increasing demand from new entrants — creates a classic liquidity squeeze scenario. With fewer coins available for sale and rising demand, even moderate buying pressure can trigger outsized price moves.
👉 See how on-chain trends are shaping Bitcoin’s next big move
The Path to $115,000: A $6 Billion Liquidity Zone
The $115,000 level isn’t arbitrary — it represents a significant concentration of short-term market exposure. Analysts estimate that nearly **$6 billion** in liquidations could occur if Bitcoin sustains a move above this zone.
For bulls, this presents both opportunity and risk:
- Opportunity: A sustained break above $115K could trigger a cascade of forced buybacks as short positions are liquidated, fueling further upside.
- Risk: If resistance holds and price reverses, the same zone could accelerate downward momentum through long liquidations and panic selling.
However, current fundamentals suggest the market is better prepared for volatility than during previous cycles. ETF inflows have remained strong, with recent daily flows reaching $407 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs. This institutional demand provides a structural floor under prices and reduces reliance on speculative leverage alone.
Furthermore, the distribution of supply is shifting toward stronger hands. As whales and long-term investors absorb sell-side pressure, the market becomes less reactive to short-term noise and more resilient to shocks.
Will FOMO Return?
Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) has historically driven some of Bitcoin’s most explosive rallies. While not yet at fever pitch, early signs of FOMO are emerging:
- Rising new address growth
- Increasing social media mentions
- Growing search interest in “Bitcoin price prediction”
- Renewed media coverage around all-time highs
These behavioral signals suggest that sentiment is warming — but not overheating. That balance is crucial. A gradual build-up of optimism allows for sustainable momentum rather than a parabolic spike followed by collapse.
If Bitcoin successfully breaks and holds above $111,000, the next psychological milestone becomes $115,000 — and possibly beyond. With macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable (including expectations of Fed rate cuts in late 2025), Bitcoin remains well-positioned to benefit from increased risk appetite.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: What triggers a short squeeze in Bitcoin?
A: A short squeeze occurs when rising prices force leveraged traders who bet on declines (short sellers) to buy back their positions to limit losses. This buying pressure can accelerate upward momentum, especially when open interest is high.
Q: Why is $115,000 such an important level?
A: It marks a dense cluster of liquidation points and historical resistance. A confirmed breakout could unlock significant upward momentum due to forced buying from short liquidations.
Q: Are long-term holders still accumulating Bitcoin?
A: Yes. Data shows long-term holders now control 14.7 million BTC — a record high — and have shown little inclination to sell even after major price increases.
Q: How do new addresses impact Bitcoin’s price?
A: Each new address represents a potential new user or investor. Increased onboarding often correlates with rising demand and reduced circulating supply, supporting higher prices over time.
Q: Could another crash happen like in previous cycles?
A: While volatility is inherent to crypto markets, today’s ecosystem is more mature. Institutional participation, ETFs, and stronger on-chain fundamentals reduce the likelihood of uncontrolled crashes — though sharp corrections remain possible.
Q: Is retail participation increasing again?
A: Yes. The rise in new address creation and small-cap wallet activity suggests renewed retail interest — a bullish signal when combined with stable institutional inflows.
👉 Explore how investor behavior shapes market cycles in Bitcoin
Final Outlook: Breakout or Pullback?
Bitcoin stands at a crossroads. Technical resistance at $111,000 remains formidable, and bearish positioning in derivatives markets suggests many expect another rejection. Yet on-chain fundamentals tell a different story — one of growing adoption, strong holder conviction, and tightening liquidity.
The path to $115,000 is within reach, but it will require sustained buying pressure and a decisive break above key resistance levels. If achieved, the resulting short squeeze could propel prices even higher.
For now, patience is key. Watch for confirmation: sustained price action above $111K, rising volume, and continued strength in on-chain metrics. When these align, the next leg of Bitcoin’s bull run may be ready to launch.
Core Keywords: Bitcoin price prediction, BTC breakout, $115K Bitcoin, on-chain analysis, FOMO crypto, short squeeze Bitcoin, long-term holders BTC