The world of cryptocurrency is one of rapid transformation, where bold predictions can either become reality or serve as lessons in timing and market dynamics. Each year, the team at Bitwise gathers to forecast the most pivotal trends shaping the digital asset landscape. This process—driven by deep analysis, spirited debate, and forward-looking insight—has become one of the most anticipated events in the crypto calendar.
Before unveiling our 2025 outlook on December 10 (teaser: it’s going to be wild), it's essential to look back at how our 2024 predictions fared. The crypto ecosystem has evolved dramatically over the past year, with institutional adoption accelerating, regulatory winds shifting, and technological breakthroughs unlocking new use cases. Let’s examine what we got right, where we missed the mark, and what it all means for the future.
Setting the Stage: The State of Crypto in December 2023
When we published our 2024 predictions on December 12, 2023, the industry stood at a crossroads. Bitcoin traded at $43,750, and sentiment in Washington was largely hostile toward digital assets. Just days prior, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon testified before Congress, reiterating his long-standing opposition: “If I were king, I would ban Bitcoin.” Such rhetoric dominated mainstream financial discourse.
Fast forward to late 2024: Bitcoin hovers near $100,000, pro-crypto lawmakers hold significant influence in U.S. politics, and Wall Street giants are racing to launch tokenized products. The shift has been nothing short of extraordinary—and many of these changes were catalyzed by developments we anticipated.
Prediction 1: Bitcoin Will Surpass $80,000 and Set a New All-Time High
✅ Correct
Our first forecast was spot-on. Bitcoin broke through the $80,000 threshold in November 2024 and continued its upward trajectory, approaching six figures by year-end. This surge was powered by two key catalysts we identified: the historic approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the impact of the April 2024 halving event.
The ETF greenlight brought unprecedented institutional capital into the market, while reduced supply issuance post-halving tightened market dynamics. Together, they created a perfect storm for price appreciation. With momentum building, we’ll soon release updated price targets for Bitcoin—and expand our outlook to include Ethereum and Solana in our 2025 forecast.
Prediction 2: Spot Bitcoin ETFs Will Be Approved and Become the Most Successful ETF Launch Ever
✅ Correct
This was another clear win. The U.S. SEC’s January 2024 approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs marked a watershed moment. By December 1, these funds had attracted over $31 billion in net inflows—a staggering figure compared to historical benchmarks.
For context:
- Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), often cited as the most successful ETF launch before 2024, drew $5 billion in its first year.
- Gold-backed ETFs pulled in less than $2 billion during their debut year.
Bitcoin ETFs didn’t just surpass them—they multiplied their achievements several times over. Demand remains strong, signaling enduring confidence from both retail and institutional investors.
Prediction 3: Coinbase’s Revenue Will Double and Beat Wall Street Expectations by 10x
✅ Correct
In 2023, Coinbase reported $3.1 billion in revenue. By the end of Q3 2024, it had already reached $4.1 billion. Even with conservative estimates for Q4, the platform is on track to exceed $6.2 billion—effectively doubling its previous year’s earnings.
Beyond raw numbers, Coinbase continues to innovate—expanding into staking, international markets, and developer tools—solidifying its position as a cornerstone of the crypto economy. Despite this growth, many analysts still view the company as undervalued relative to its ecosystem influence.
Prediction 4: Stablecoin Settlement Volume Will Exceed Visa’s
❌ Incorrect
Stablecoins made impressive strides in 2024. In the first half alone, they settled $5.1 trillion**, up significantly from prior periods. However, Visa processed **$6.5 trillion in the same timeframe—meaning stablecoins came close but didn’t surpass the payments giant.
That said, this gap is narrowing rapidly. With faster settlement times, lower fees, and growing integration into global remittance systems, stablecoins are poised to overtake traditional payment rails within the next few years.
👉 See how stablecoins are redefining global payments—get real-time insights now.
Prediction 5: JPMorgan Will Tokenize a Fund and Launch It On-Chain
❌ Incorrect
While JPMorgan didn’t officially launch a tokenized fund in 2024, progress was undeniable. The bank upgraded its Onyx Digital Assets platform, called tokenization “the next-generation financial infrastructure,” and actively participated in industry pilots.
Meanwhile, competitors like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, UBS, and Société Générale moved ahead with live tokenized bond offerings. The irony? A company once led by a vocal crypto critic now stands at the forefront of blockchain innovation.
Prediction 6: Ethereum’s Revenue Will More Than Double to $5 Billion
❌ Incorrect
We expected Ethereum’s application layer boom—especially in DeFi and NFTs—to drive revenue past $5 billion. Instead, income may end the year slightly below $2 billion, down from 2023 levels.
Why? The March 2024 Dencun upgrade slashed transaction fees by up to 99% through proto-danksharding and EIP-4844. While this dramatically improved scalability and user experience (a long-term win), it temporarily reduced fee revenue for validators.
Still, lower costs mean higher adoption potential. As Layer 2 networks flourish and dApp usage grows, Ethereum’s economic engine is likely to rebound stronger than ever.
Prediction 7: Taylor Swift Will Launch an NFT Collection
❌ Incorrect
No NFT drop from Taylor Swift in 2024—but the possibility remains alive for 2025. Reports suggest she’s cautious about regulatory implications, particularly whether NFTs could be classified as unregistered securities.
Clearer regulations around digital collectibles could change her calculus. If 2025 brings legal clarity, we might finally see mainstream artists embrace NFTs not just as art, but as interactive fan experiences.
Prediction 8: AI Agents Will Use Crypto to Transact Online
✅ Correct
In July, venture capitalist Marc Andreessen donated $50,000 worth of Bitcoin to an AI agent named *Truth Terminal*. That AI went on to promote a meme coin—Goatseus Maximus (GOAT)—which briefly reached a $674 million market cap.
This experiment proved that AI systems can independently engage with blockchain ecosystems, make transactions, and influence markets. As AI becomes more autonomous, expect crypto to serve as its native payment rail—the true “internet money” for machine-to-machine economies.
Prediction 9: Over $100 Million Will Flow Into Prediction Markets
✅ Correct
One of our proudest calls. In late 2023, Polymarket was a niche platform with only $8 million in lifetime wagers. By mid-2024, that number exploded to over **$500 million**, fueled by U.S. election betting and rising interest in decentralized forecasting.
Polymarket emerged as a cultural phenomenon—accurately predicting election outcomes with greater precision than traditional polls. Its success signals that prediction markets may be crypto’s next killer app after DeFi and NFTs.
Prediction 10: Ethereum Upgrades Will Push Average Fees Below $0.01
✅ Correct
Thanks to Dencun and Layer 2 scaling solutions like Arbitrum and Optimism, average Ethereum transaction costs dipped below $0.01 during peak efficiency periods in summer 2024. Even when factoring in volatility, most L2s now operate between $0.01 and $0.02 per transaction.
Sub-cent fees unlock mass-market applications—from micropayments to social media monetization—making blockchain accessible beyond speculative trading.
Bonus Prediction: 25% of Financial Advisors Will Allocate Crypto to Client Portfolios
❓ Pending
Our annual survey of financial advisors is still underway. In 2023, only 11% included crypto in client portfolios. While demand is rising, adoption barriers remain—particularly at large institutions like Wells Fargo, UBS, and Merrill Lynch, which have yet to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs for retail accounts.
However, given the momentum behind regulated crypto products, we believe widespread advisor adoption is inevitable—even if it doesn’t hit 25% by year-end.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How accurate were Bitwise’s 2024 crypto predictions?
A: Out of ten core predictions, six were correct, three were incorrect, and one remains pending. Given the volatility and pace of innovation in crypto, this reflects strong foresight—especially on ETFs, AI agents, and prediction markets.
Q: Why did Ethereum’s revenue decrease despite higher usage?
A: The Dencun upgrade drastically reduced transaction fees via EIP-4844 and proto-danksharding. Lower fees improve usability but temporarily reduce validator income—a trade-off designed for long-term scalability.
Q: Are stablecoins really challenging Visa?
A: Not yet—but they’re getting close. With faster settlements and lower costs, stablecoins are increasingly used in cross-border payments and remittances. At current growth rates, parity could arrive by 2026.
Q: What makes prediction markets a potential “killer app”?
A: Platforms like Polymarket combine transparency, real-time data aggregation, and financial incentives to forecast events more accurately than traditional methods—offering powerful tools for decision-making in politics, finance, and beyond.
Q: Will AI become a major user of cryptocurrency?
A: Yes. Autonomous AI agents need a trustless way to pay for services online. Cryptocurrency—especially stablecoins—is ideal for machine-to-machine transactions without human intervention.
Q: When will mainstream celebrities adopt NFTs?
A: Widespread adoption hinges on regulatory clarity. Once laws define how NFTs relate to securities or intellectual property rights, major artists like Taylor Swift may feel safer launching digital collectibles.
Final Thoughts
Six out of ten predictions correct—and several others nearly so—is a strong performance amid one of crypto’s most transformative years. From ETF breakthroughs to AI-driven economies and scalable blockchains, 2024 laid the foundation for broader digital asset integration across finance and technology.
As we prepare to unveil our 2025 Crypto Predictions, one thing is certain: the pace of change is accelerating. Whether it's tokenized real-world assets, decentralized AI networks, or global stablecoin adoption—the next chapter promises even greater disruption.
👉 Stay ahead of the curve—explore tomorrow’s crypto trends today.