The cryptocurrency world has long been shaped by visionary thinkers—and few have had as direct an impact as Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX and widely credited as the inventor of the perpetual futures contract. In a recent candid discussion, Hayes shared his bold outlook on Bitcoin, the fading prospects of most altcoins, the future of financial policy, and why he still sees explosive potential in digital assets.
His insights—rooted in years of navigating Asian markets and global macro trends—offer a rare blend of technical depth and macroeconomic foresight. Whether you're a seasoned trader or new to crypto, Hayes’ perspective is essential for understanding where the market may head next.
👉 Discover how top traders like Arthur Hayes are positioning for the next bull run.
Bitcoin Price Forecast: $250K by Year-End?
Arthur Hayes remains bullish on Bitcoin, projecting a price target of $250,000 by the end of 2025—a significant upgrade from earlier estimates. His forecast hinges on one key macro driver: global monetary expansion.
Hayes anticipates that central banks, particularly the U.S. Federal Reserve, will inject approximately $9 trillion into the financial system over the coming years. This includes:
- Up to $5 trillion in new credit creation to support mortgage markets.
- An additional $1 trillion in asset purchases by banks, enabled by relaxed capital requirements under the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) exemption.
With fewer regulatory constraints, banks can now absorb more risk, freeing up capital to lend into the real economy—and eventually, into risk assets like Bitcoin.
But why Bitcoin over other assets?
"Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins makes it uniquely positioned to benefit from liquidity floods," Hayes explained. "When trillions flow into a relatively small market cap, prices don’t just rise—they explode."
Unlike stocks or even gold, Bitcoin’s scarcity is algorithmically enforced, making it a powerful hedge against currency devaluation. And with institutional adoption accelerating via ETFs and corporate treasuries, its role as digital gold is becoming mainstream.
Why Most Altcoins May Never Recover
While Bitcoin soars, Hayes delivers a sobering message for altcoin holders: most will never see new highs.
His reasoning? A lack of product-market fit.
"Ask any altcoin project: where are your customers? Where is your revenue?" Hayes said. "Too many have billion-dollar valuations but zero users paying for their product."
This disconnect is especially evident in projects with high Fully Diluted Valuations (FDV) but minimal circulating supply. Without real utility or income streams flowing back to token holders, these assets resemble speculative venture bets—not investable assets.
Projects like Berachain and Monad, despite massive hype and funding, have struggled to gain traction because their ecosystems lack real usage. In contrast, Hayes highlights Pendle and Ethfi as exceptions—protocols generating real yield and user demand.
👉 See which altcoins actually deliver real-world value—before the next cycle peaks.
How to Pick Winning Altcoins: Focus on Narrative and Cash Flow
So how does Hayes approach altcoin investing?
"Narrative drives early-stage markets," he said. "If a project tells a compelling story about solving a real problem, it can attract capital—even before product-market fit."
But long-term success depends on one thing: cash flow.
"If investors can earn returns through staking, fees, or protocol rewards, that creates sustainable demand," Hayes noted. "Without it, you’re just gambling on hype."
He also emphasizes valuation discipline:
- For early-stage projects: set strict investment caps to avoid overpaying.
- For mature protocols: prioritize those with strong revenue and user growth.
Timing matters too. Buying into a narrative at the right price—before mass adoption—can yield exponential returns. But chasing pumps at peak hype often leads to losses.
"Buy low, not loud," Hayes advises. "If you're jumping into every meme coin trend, you're not investing—you're gambling."
The Birth of the Perpetual Contract
Few innovations have shaped crypto trading like the perpetual futures contract—a product Hayes helped pioneer at BitMEX in 2016.
The idea came from customer frustration: users didn’t understand why futures prices diverged from spot prices, or why contracts had expiration dates.
"So we asked: what if we built a futures contract with no expiry and continuous funding?" Hayes recalled. "That way, traders could hold leveraged positions indefinitely—without rolling contracts."
Launched in May 2016, the perpetual swap was initially met with skepticism. But its simplicity and utility quickly won over traders. Today, it’s the backbone of nearly every major exchange.
Still, Hayes warns against over-leveraging:
"I don’t use leverage myself. I buy spot. Leverage is for experts who can manage risk and emotions. If you’re not prepared, stay away."
Will the U.S. Government Buy Bitcoin?
Despite speculation about a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve, Hayes doubts the government will ever actively buy the asset.
"Politically, it’s unfeasible," he said. "Imagine Congress voting to spend taxpayer money on Bitcoin—a volatile asset held mostly by young males. It won’t happen."
However, if Democrats win in 2028, they might liquidate existing seized Bitcoin (around 200,000 BTC) to fund social programs—posing short-term downside risk.
On the flip side, capital controls could emerge—not abruptly, but gradually.
One possible move: ending the withholding tax exemption for foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries. This could reduce foreign demand for U.S. debt, forcing the Fed to monetize deficits through QE.
But markets won’t crash—because the U.S. can always print.
"The dollar’s dominance allows America to absorb shocks others can’t," Hayes said. "Foreign capital may drift away over decades—but not overnight."
The Future of Exchanges: Marketing Over Innovation
With trading fees nearly identical across platforms and product offerings stagnant, Hayes believes marketing is now the main battleground for exchanges.
"Look at Coinbase vs. JP Morgan," he said. "If traditional banks start offering zero-fee crypto trading, exchanges lose their edge."
Banks have deeper distribution networks and diversified revenue streams—they can afford to offer free trades. Crypto-native platforms rely heavily on transaction fees, making them vulnerable.
His advice for new entrants? Don’t compete in Bitcoin/USD pairs.
"Start with memecoins or launchpads," Hayes suggests. "That’s where the degens are. Build community-driven products with high-margin revenue streams."
Generational Wealth Transfer and the Inflation Response
A looming crisis looms beyond crypto: the intergenerational wealth gap.
Baby boomers hold vast amounts of stocks and real estate—but younger generations aren’t buying.
"Why would millennials buy a suburban house when they rent or live in cities?" Hayes asks. "And if no one buys these assets, prices fall—threatening retirees’ portfolios."
The likely government response? Massive money printing.
"It’s the easiest political solution," Hayes said. "Rather than raise taxes on workers, just inflate the debt away."
This fuels demand for hard assets like Bitcoin—especially among younger investors distrustful of traditional systems.
FAQs: Arthur Hayes on Crypto’s Future
Q: Does Arthur Hayes still believe in a 'meme coin season'?
A: Not broadly—but niche communities with strong narratives can still deliver outsized returns if they capture cultural momentum early.
Q: Can decentralized exchanges (DEXs) truly compete with centralized ones?
A: Only if they offer better liquidity and UX. Most users care more about execution than ideology—decentralization is a feature, not the product.
Q: Is Bitcoin’s dominance going to keep rising?
A: Yes—Hayes expects BTC to reach 70% market dominance during this cycle, especially if Ethereum fails to innovate post-upgrades.
Q: What’s the biggest risk to Bitcoin’s price?
A: Regulatory crackdowns on exchanges or self-custody—but Hayes sees this as unlikely in the U.S., given growing political lobbying by crypto firms.
Q: How does Asia differ from the West in crypto adoption?
A: Higher skepticism toward government, stronger savings culture (gold, real estate), and deeper integration of gaming and digital economies—especially in South Korea.
Q: What should retail investors focus on?
A: Simplicity. Own Bitcoin. Diversify cautiously into high-cashflow protocols. Avoid leverage unless you’re full-time. And never invest based on FOMO.
👉 Learn how to build a resilient crypto portfolio—like the pros do.
Final Thoughts: Positioning for the Next Wave
Arthur Hayes’ vision combines macro realism with crypto optimism. He sees Bitcoin as the ultimate hedge against monetary debasement—and most altcoins as overvalued narratives without substance.
His fund, Maelstrom, reflects this: overweight in Bitcoin, selective exposure to high-utility protocols like Pendle, and active investment in profitable crypto businesses via acquisitions.
As generational shifts, policy changes, and technological waves collide, Hayes’ message is clear:
Bet on scarcity. Demand cash flow. And prepare for inflation—not with fear, but with strategy.
The next chapter of finance isn’t just digital—it’s inevitable.