Bitcoin is showing signs of breaking out from a bullish chart pattern, potentially paving the way for altcoins like Toncoin (TON), Stacks (STX), Mantle (MNT), and Maker (MKR) to follow suit. While the flagship cryptocurrency has dipped about 2% this week, dropping from recent highs near $69,227, it has rebounded strongly from its weekly low of $64,493—an encouraging signal for bulls. Market analysts are closely watching for the next catalyst, with many pointing to the upcoming Bitcoin halving as a potential trigger for renewed momentum.
However, caution remains. Coinbase has warned that post-halving periods often coincide with seasonal weakness in crypto and broader risk assets, which could temporarily cap gains. Still, the overall sentiment remains constructive. UTXO Management’s senior analyst Dylan LeClair suggests that while downside risks exist, a drop below $50,000 is unlikely unless extreme market conditions emerge. This implies limited downside and a favorable risk-reward setup for investors.
Interestingly, while Bitcoin continues to lead the market, certain altcoins have begun outperforming. Pantera Capital’s Liquid Token Fund recently revealed in a shareholder letter—reviewed by Bloomberg—that it reduced its exposure to Bitcoin and Ethereum while increasing allocations to DeFi tokens. This strategic shift contributed to a remarkable 66% return in Q1 2024, underscoring growing confidence in select altcoin ecosystems.
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Bitcoin Technical Outlook: Breaking the Triangle
Over the past several days, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart—a formation typically preceding a strong directional move. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $68,049 is trending upward, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in positive territory, both indicating that buyers retain slight control.
A decisive close above the upper boundary of the triangle would confirm a bullish breakout, suggesting that market indecision has resolved in favor of bulls. In such a scenario, the BTC/USDT pair could target $73,777 before advancing toward $80,000.
Conversely, if price turns lower from the descending trendline and breaks below the 20-day EMA, the consolidation phase may extend. A breakdown below the triangle’s support would shift advantage to sellers, potentially triggering a drop to $59,000 and later to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $54,298.
On the 4-hour chart, the 20-period EMA has begun turning up, and the RSI remains above neutral, reinforcing short-term bullish momentum. The key resistance lies along the descending trendline. If buyers can push through it, the current range-bound action could end, opening the door for a rally toward $72,000–$73,777.
Should price instead fall below the moving averages, it would signal persistent bearish pressure. The pair might then retest the triangle’s lower support. Only a break below this level would confirm a deeper correction.
Toncoin (TON): Testing Key Resistance
Toncoin (TON) has been steadily approaching resistance at $5.69, signaling that bulls are attempting to reclaim control after recent volatility. The rising 20-day EMA at $4.86 supports the bullish narrative, indicating sustained buying interest.
However, a bearish divergence on the RSI suggests that upward momentum may be weakening—increasing the likelihood of short-term consolidation or pullback. If price reverses from $5.69, it would confirm that bears are actively defending this level, possibly dragging price back toward the 20-day EMA.
A breakout above $5.69 would invalidate this bearish setup and likely ignite a new leg up toward $7.09. The 4-hour chart shows price oscillating between $4.72 and $5.60 for some time. With both moving averages now sloping upward and RSI in positive territory, the odds favor a successful breach of resistance.
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A decisive drop below the moving averages, however, would suggest that bullish momentum is fading. A break below $4.72 would shift power to sellers and could lead to further declines.
Stacks (STX): Bullish Reversal in Progress?
Stacks (STX) is showing promising signs of recovery. A move above $3.36 would indicate that buyers have absorbed selling pressure, increasing the chances of a rally toward $3.84—the next resistance level.
Clearing $3.84 could propel STX/USDT toward $4.27 and eventually $5.00. Conversely, failure to hold above key support could lead to deeper corrections. A drop below the 50-day EMA would signal bearish dominance, potentially pushing price down to $2.50 and then $2.20.
On the 4-hour chart, buyers have pushed price above the 20-period EMA, suggesting easing selling pressure. If momentum continues and price rises above the 50-period EMA, a retest of $3.60 and then $3.84 becomes likely.
Alternatively, rejection from the 50 EMA would imply that sellers remain active on rallies. A break below $3.05 would strengthen bearish sentiment and accelerate losses toward $2.90 or lower.
Mantle (MNT): Holding Strong Amid Resistance
Mantle (MNT) has struggled to break past resistance at $1.50 but has shown resilience by holding above the 20-day EMA at $1.18—a positive sign for bulls. The upward-sloping EMA and RSI near overbought levels suggest that the path of least resistance remains upward.
A breakout above $1.50 could trigger a rally toward $1.90 as traders anticipate stronger network adoption and yield opportunities within the Mantle ecosystem.
On the flip side, rejection at $1.50 may lead to profit-taking, pulling price back toward the 20-day EMA. A break below this support would signal weakening bullish control and possibly initiate a deeper correction.
The 4-hour chart shows both EMAs trending higher and RSI in positive territory—indicating sustained buying interest. There’s minor resistance at $1.45; clearing it could pave the way toward $1.50.
The 50-day EMA remains a critical support level. A drop below it would warn of deteriorating momentum, potentially sending price toward strong support near $1.15.
Maker (MKR): Testing Bullish Sentiment
MKR/USDT is currently testing support at the 20-day EMA ($3,481)—a level worth watching closely. A bounce from here would reflect strong market confidence and “buy-the-dip” behavior, possibly leading to a retest of resistance at $4,074.
A breakout above that level could accelerate gains toward $5,280.
Conversely, a break below the 20-day EMA would suggest that bulls are exiting positions prematurely—increasing downside risk toward the 50-day EMA at $2,794.
On the 4-hour chart, price has fallen below moving averages, indicating short-term bearish control. Immediate support lies at $3,561 and then $3,453—levels where bulls are expected to defend aggressively.
A rebound from these levels could lead to sideways consolidation before another attempt higher.
However, failure to hold $3,453 may spark a deeper correction toward $3,000 and eventually $2,700. The uptrend would only resume with a sustained close above $4,074.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Is Bitcoin likely to surge after the halving?
A: Historically, Bitcoin has seen significant rallies months after halving events due to reduced supply inflation. While short-term volatility is expected, long-term fundamentals remain strong.
Q: Which altcoins have the strongest technical setups right now?
A: TON, STX, MNT, and MKR all show improving chart patterns with rising moving averages and bullish momentum indicators—making them top candidates for outperformance.
Q: What should investors watch for in Bitcoin’s price action?
A: A daily close above the symmetrical triangle resistance is key for confirming bullish continuation. Until then, consolidation or minor pullbacks remain possible.
Q: Can altcoins outperform Bitcoin in 2025?
A: Yes—especially those with strong fundamentals and growing ecosystem activity like DeFi and layer-1 platforms—can significantly outpace Bitcoin during bull phases.
Q: How can I manage risk when investing in volatile altcoins?
A: Use stop-loss orders, diversify across sectors, and avoid overexposure to any single asset—especially during uncertain macro conditions.
Q: Where can I track real-time price movements and trends?
A: Reliable platforms offer live charts and technical analysis tools essential for informed trading decisions.
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